Serie B · Regular Season - 37
Novorizontino vs Fortaleza EC
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 19:10 UTC · Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi, Novo Horizonte
Novorizontino host Fortaleza EC on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Novorizontino 45%, draw 28%, Fortaleza EC 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Novorizontino €572K, Fortaleza EC €902K.
- Home advantage makes Novorizontino the favourite here: it adds 11 points to their win chance.
- Serie B: Jordi is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1876).
- Serie B: Lucas Gazal is the highest-rated defender (1917).
- Novorizontino are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Novorizontino goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Novorizontino 1778 · Fortaleza EC 1791
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Novorizontino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1910
Fortaleza EC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1887
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Novorizontino
2nd in Serie B · 61 pts from 34
- 18 OctDVila Nova Brazil Serie B1764
- 12 OctWPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1727
- 8 OctWNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1776
- 2 OctWGoias Brazil Serie B1764
- 25 SepDSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1763
Fortaleza EC
4th in Serie B · 60 pts from 34
- 16 OctWSport Recife Brazil Serie B1752
- 12 OctDCRB Brazil Serie B1709
- 7 OctWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1767
- 3 OctDNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1777
- 27 SepDAthletic Club Brazil Serie B1800
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino | 61 /34 | 67.2 | 28% | 88% | 0% | 1st |
| Fortaleza EC | 60 /34 | 66.9 | 19% | 84% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Novorizontino: balanced profile (how Enderson Moreira plays) · Fortaleza EC: direct (how Paulo Autuori plays)