League One · Regular Season - 13
Notts County vs Stockport County
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Meadow Lane, Nottingham
Notts County host Stockport County on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Notts County 32%, draw 29%, Stockport County 40%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Notts County €372K, Stockport County €659K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of League One matchday 13: 141 points.
- Notts County's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
- Stockport County's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Notts County goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Notts County 1677 · Stockport County 1818
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Notts County · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1725
Stockport County · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.5 (Elite) · Elo 1894
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Notts County
23rd in League One · 7 pts from 9
- 17 OctLWycombe England League One1705
- 13 OctWNottingham Forest U21 England EFL Trophy1616
- 10 OctLOxford United England League One1736
- 22 SepWGrimsby England EFL Trophy1520
- 19 SepLReading England League One1698
Stockport County
2nd in League One · 19 pts from 10
- 17 OctWBromley England League One1812
- 10 OctWBarnsley England League One1824
- 26 SepWPeterborough England League One1825
- 19 SepDSheffield Wednesday England League One1798
- 12 SepLLeicester England League One1816
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 7 /9 | 46.6 | 0% | 0% | 56% | 24th |
| Stockport County | 19 /10 | 70.6 | 8% | 36% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Notts County: possession-based · low-block (how Martin Andrew Paterson plays) · Stockport County: balanced profile (how Jimmy McNulty plays)