League One · Regular Season - 16
Notts County vs Stevenage
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Meadow Lane, Nottingham
Notts County host Stevenage on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (League One); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Notts County 44%, draw 28%, Stevenage 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Notts County €462K, Stevenage €354K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (League One): Notts County rank #24 of 24, Stevenage #2.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Notts County goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–011%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 0–18%
- 2–08%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Notts County 1769 · Stevenage 1753
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Notts County · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1870
Stevenage · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1623
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Notts County
17th in League One · 14 pts from 12
- 10 NovWBurton Albion England EFL Trophy1608
- 31 OctWMansfield Town England League One1735
- 24 OctDStockport County England League One1734
- 20 OctWSheffield Wednesday England League One1691
- 17 OctLWycombe England League One1701
Stevenage
16th in League One · 16 pts from 12
- 10 NovDFulham U21 England EFL Trophy1746
- 7 NovWOxford United England FA Cup1715
- 31 OctDLeicester England League One1733
- 24 OctLMilton Keynes Dons England League One1764
- 20 OctWPlymouth England League One1720
Season outlook
From the League One simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 14 /12 | 56.5 | 0% | 1% | 7% | 16th |
| Stevenage | 16 /12 | 58.0 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Notts County: possession-based · low-block (how M. Paterson plays) · Stevenage: direct (how A. Revell plays)