League One · Regular Season - 10
Notts County 1–2 Oxford United
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Meadow Lane, Nottingham
Notts CountyTeam 1676Oxford UnitedTeam 1814- Rory Finneran 90+1'
- Mark Harris 18'
- Cameron Brannagan 88'
We gave Oxford United 39% to win: they did.
- Rod McDonald –7'Notts County:Rod McDonald –
- 18'Mark Harris –Oxford United:Mark Harris –
- Oliver Cooper –23'Notts County:Oliver Cooper –
- 44'Louie Sibley –Oxford United:Louie Sibley –
- Rory Finneran – for Oliver Cooper –45'Notts County:Rory Finneran – for Oliver Cooper –
- Max Sanders – for Matt Palmer –45'Notts County:Max Sanders – for Matt Palmer –
- Nicholas Tsaroulla – for James Gibbons –45'Notts County:Nicholas Tsaroulla – for James Gibbons –
- Max Sanders –47'Notts County:Max Sanders –
- Jacob Bedeau –58'Notts County:Jacob Bedeau –
- 58'Kai Andrews – for Louie Sibley –Oxford United:Kai Andrews – for Louie Sibley –
- Luka Smyth – for Conor·Grant –65'Notts County:Luka Smyth – for Conor·Grant –
- 66'L. Snowden – for Mo Missanga –Oxford United:L. Snowden – for Mo Missanga –
- 66'Gatlin O Donkor – for Tyler Goodrham –Oxford United:Gatlin O Donkor – for Tyler Goodrham –
- Rory Finneran –70'Notts County:Rory Finneran –
- 76'Luka Lynch – for Siriki Dembele –Oxford United:Luka Lynch – for Siriki Dembele –
- 76'Brodie Spencer – for Jack Currie –Oxford United:Brodie Spencer – for Jack Currie –
- Lucas Ness –77'Notts County:Lucas Ness –
- 82'Peter Kioso –Oxford United:Peter Kioso –
- 87'Michał Helik –Oxford United:Michał Helik –
- 88'Cameron Brannagan – assist Luka Lynch –Oxford United:Cameron Brannagan – assist Luka Lynch –
- Rory Finneran – assist Nicholas Tsaroulla –90+1'Notts County:Rory Finneran – assist Nicholas Tsaroulla –
Before kick-off (provisional): 32% · 29% · 39%(Notts County · draw · Oxford United)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–2 had 9%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Notts County €455K, Oxford United €1.1M.
- Oxford United were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Notts County
20th in League One · 7 pts from 7
- 22 SepWGrimsby England EFL Trophy1520
- 19 SepLReading England League One1698
- 12 SepLBradford England League One1673
- 5 SepDHuddersfield England League One1708
- 29 AugWBurton Albion England League One1617
Oxford United
10th in League One · 11 pts from 6
- 6 OctDExeter City England EFL Trophy1627
- 19 SepDCambridge United England League One1811
- 12 SepWBurton Albion England League One1780
- 5 SepWLeicester England League One1742
- 22 AugWStevenage England League One1799
Season outlook
From the League One simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 7 /7 | 49.1 | 0% | <1% | 48% | 24th |
| Oxford United | 11 /6 | 68.9 | 8% | 35% | 1% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Notts County · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1831
Oxford United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1907
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Notts County: possession-based · low-block (how Martin Andrew Paterson plays) · Oxford United: balanced profile (how Aaron James Ramsey plays)