Premier League · Regular Season - 10
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UTC · City Ground, Nottingham
Nottingham Forest host Manchester City on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nottingham Forest 17%, draw 24%, Manchester City 59%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nottingham Forest €22.6M, Manchester City €60.2M.
- Premier League: Rúben Dias is the highest-rated defender (2712).
- Style contrast in possession (Premier League): Nottingham Forest rank #17 of 20, Manchester City #1.
- Manchester City's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nottingham Forest goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–37%
- 1–37%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 1.0 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 4.4 pts
Team Elo: Nottingham Forest 2254 · Manchester City 2620
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nottingham Forest · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Elite) · Elo 2306
Manchester City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2587
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nottingham Forest
19th in Premier League · 5 pts from 7
- 18 OctLArsenal Premier League2260
- 11 OctLCrystal Palace Premier League2292
- 19 SepLCoventry Premier League2280
- 12 SepWAston Villa Premier League2278
- 5 SepDTottenham Premier League2265
Manchester City
1st in Premier League · 21 pts from 7
- 20 OctWAEK Athens FC UEFA Champions League2461
- 17 OctWIpswich Premier League2592
- 14 OctLParis Saint Germain UEFA Champions League2653
- 11 OctWLiverpool Premier League2628
- 20 SepWSunderland Premier League2621
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 5 /7 | 43.9 | 0% | 1% | 15% | 16th |
| Manchester City | 21 /7 | 85.1 | 61% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nottingham Forest: balanced profile (how Oliver Glasner plays) · Manchester City: possession-based · creative (how Enzo Maresca plays)