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Premier League · Regular Season - 7

Nottingham Forest 0–1 Arsenal

Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 15:30 UTC · City Ground, Nottingham

Nottingham Forest crestNottingham ForestTeam 2244
0–1
Full time
HT 0–0
Arsenal crestArsenalTeam 2700

Match story

Nottingham Forest · draw · Arsenal

Before kick-off: 13% · 21% · 66%

Live chances: Nottingham Forest 0%, draw 3%, Arsenal 97% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 21%, Arsenal 66%2' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 21%, Arsenal 66%3' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 21%, Arsenal 66%4' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 21%, Arsenal 66%5' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 21%, Arsenal 65%6' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 22%, Arsenal 65%7' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 22%, Arsenal 65%8' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 22%, Arsenal 65%9' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 22%, Arsenal 65%10' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 22%, Arsenal 64%11' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 22%, Arsenal 64%12' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 22%, Arsenal 64%13' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 23%, Arsenal 64%14' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 23%, Arsenal 63%15' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 23%, Arsenal 63%16' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 23%, Arsenal 63%17' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 23%, Arsenal 63%18' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 24%, Arsenal 62%19' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 24%, Arsenal 62%20' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 24%, Arsenal 62%21' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 24%, Arsenal 62%22' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 24%, Arsenal 61%23' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 25%, Arsenal 61%24' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 25%, Arsenal 61%25' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 25%, Arsenal 60%26' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 25%, Arsenal 60%27' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 25%, Arsenal 60%28' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 26%, Arsenal 60%29' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 26%, Arsenal 59%30' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 26%, Arsenal 59%31' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 26%, Arsenal 59%32' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 27%, Arsenal 58%33' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 27%, Arsenal 58%34' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 27%, Arsenal 58%35' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 27%, Arsenal 57%36' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 28%, Arsenal 57%37' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 28%, Arsenal 57%38' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 28%, Arsenal 56%39' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 29%, Arsenal 56%40' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 29%, Arsenal 56%41' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 29%, Arsenal 55%42' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 30%, Arsenal 55%43' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 30%, Arsenal 55%44' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 30%, Arsenal 54%45' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 31%, Arsenal 54%45+1' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 31%, Arsenal 53%45+2' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 31%, Arsenal 53%45+3' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 32%, Arsenal 53%45+4' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 32%, Arsenal 52%HT · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 32%, Arsenal 52%46' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 32%, Arsenal 52%47' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 32%, Arsenal 52%48' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 33%, Arsenal 51%49' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 33%, Arsenal 51%50' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 34%, Arsenal 50%51' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 34%, Arsenal 50%52' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 35%, Arsenal 49%53' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 36%, Arsenal 49%54' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 36%, Arsenal 48%55' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 37%, Arsenal 47%56' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 38%, Arsenal 47%57' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 38%, Arsenal 46%58' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 39%, Arsenal 46%59' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 16%, draw 40%, Arsenal 45%60' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 40%, Arsenal 44%61' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 41%, Arsenal 44%62' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 42%, Arsenal 43%63' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 42%, Arsenal 42%64' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 43%, Arsenal 42%65' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 44%, Arsenal 41%66' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 45%, Arsenal 40%67' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 46%, Arsenal 39%68' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 47%, Arsenal 39%69' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 15%, draw 48%, Arsenal 38%70' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 49%, Arsenal 37%71' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 49%, Arsenal 36%72' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 51%, Arsenal 35%73' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 52%, Arsenal 35%74' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 14%, draw 53%, Arsenal 34%75' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 54%, Arsenal 33%76' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 55%, Arsenal 32%77' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 56%, Arsenal 31%78' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 13%, draw 58%, Arsenal 30%79' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 12%, draw 59%, Arsenal 29%80' · 0–0 · Nottingham Forest 12%, draw 61%, Arsenal 28%81' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 1%, draw 12%, Arsenal 86%82' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 1%, draw 12%, Arsenal 87%83' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 1%, draw 12%, Arsenal 87%84' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 1%, draw 11%, Arsenal 88%85' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 1%, draw 11%, Arsenal 89%86' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 1%, draw 10%, Arsenal 89%87' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 1%, draw 10%, Arsenal 90%88' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 1%, draw 9%, Arsenal 91%89' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 0%, draw 8%, Arsenal 91%90' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 0%, draw 7%, Arsenal 92%90+1' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 0%, draw 6%, Arsenal 93%90+2' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 0%, draw 5%, Arsenal 94%90+3' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 0%, draw 4%, Arsenal 95%90+4' · 0–1 · Nottingham Forest 0%, draw 3%, Arsenal 97%

Last reading, 90+4': 0% · 3% · 97%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Arsenal 66% to win: they did.

  1. 17'Nottingham Forest:Neco Williams 2289 −3
  2. 45'Arsenal:Noni Madueke 2628 +8 for Eberechi Eze 2639 +2
  3. 53'Arsenal:Noni Madueke 2628 +8
  4. 66'Arsenal:Jurriën Timber 2653 +4 for Ben White 2629 +10
  5. 66'Arsenal:Viktor Gyökeres 2556 +1 for Kai Havertz 2557 +5
  6. 66'Arsenal:Mikel Merino 2584 +2 for Bruno Guimarães 2471 +16
  7. 73'Nottingham Forest:Arnaud Kalimuendo 2067 0 for Dan Ndoye 2424 −6
  8. 74'Nottingham Forest:Ibrahim Sangaré 2257 −2 for Nicolás Domínguez 2242 −10*
  9. 80'Arsenal:Noni Madueke 2628 +8 assist Declan Rice 2671 +13
  10. 85'Nottingham Forest:Chris Wood 2068 −6 for Jair Cunha 2140 −8*
  11. 85'Nottingham Forest:Callum Hudson-Odoi 2249 0 for James Mcatee 2108 0

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

3-4-2-1Formations4-2-3-1
GM. Sels2281−5
DJair2140−8*
DO. Diomande2340−4
DMurillo2281−6
MD. Muñoz2299−5
MX. Schlager2283−4
MN. Domínguez2242−10*
MN. Williams2289−3
MJ. McAtee21080
MD. Ndoye2424−6
FL. Delap21550
CO. Glasner2236−1
GDavid Raya2722+4
DB. White2629+10
DE. Konsa2621+15
DGabriel Magalhães2671+13
DR. Calafiori2664+14
MD. Rice2671+13
MBruno Guimarães2471+16
MB. Saka2690+5
MM. Ødegaard2667+6
ME. Eze2639+2
FK. Havertz2557+5
CMikel Arteta2666+10
Before kick-off: 13% · 21% · 66%(Nottingham Forest · draw · Arsenal)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 0–2 (11%); the result 0–1 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Nottingham Forest €20.5M, Arsenal €56.4M.
  • Arsenal were without 1 expected starter: C. Tzolis (2478).
  • Premier League: David Raya was the highest-rated goalkeeper (2717).
  • Arsenal's expected eleven was in form: average +3.5 over 180 days.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Nottingham Forest

17th in Premier League · 5 pts from 6

  • 11 OctLCrystal Palace 2292
  • 19 SepLCoventry 2280
  • 12 SepWAston Villa 2278
  • 5 SepDTottenham 2265
  • 29 AugDLiverpool 2278

Arsenal

2nd in Premier League · 15 pts from 6

  • 13 OctWLille 2596
  • 10 OctWLeeds 2622
  • 19 SepLBrighton 2624
  • 15 SepWIpswich 2412
  • 12 SepWSunderland 2611

Season outlook

From the Premier League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Nottingham Forest5 /645.30%1%12%13th
Arsenal15 /680.732%100%0%2nd
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Premier League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

X. Schlager
X. Schlager

Nottingham Forest · +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2287

D. Rice
D. Rice

Arsenal · +6.7 (Good) · Elo 2658

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Oliver Glasner

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Mikel Arteta

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Nottingham Forest: balanced profile (how Oliver Glasner plays) · Arsenal: creative (how Mikel Arteta plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.