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Championship · Regular Season - 10

Norwich 0–1 Southampton

Wed 14 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Carrow Road, Norwich

Norwich crestNorwichTeam 2005
0–1
Full time
HT 0–0
Southampton crestSouthamptonTeam 2100

Match story

Norwich · draw · Southampton

Before kick-off: 36% · 26% · 38%

Live chances: Norwich 0%, draw 6%, Southampton 94% at 90+3'1' · 0–0 · Norwich 36%, draw 26%, Southampton 38%2' · 0–0 · Norwich 36%, draw 26%, Southampton 38%3' · 0–0 · Norwich 36%, draw 26%, Southampton 38%4' · 0–0 · Norwich 36%, draw 26%, Southampton 38%5' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 27%, Southampton 38%6' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 27%, Southampton 38%7' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 27%, Southampton 38%8' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 27%, Southampton 38%9' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 27%, Southampton 38%10' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 27%, Southampton 38%11' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 27%, Southampton 38%12' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 28%, Southampton 37%13' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 28%, Southampton 37%14' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 28%, Southampton 37%15' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 28%, Southampton 37%16' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 28%, Southampton 37%17' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 28%, Southampton 37%18' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 29%, Southampton 37%19' · 0–0 · Norwich 35%, draw 29%, Southampton 37%20' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 29%, Southampton 37%21' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 29%, Southampton 37%22' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 29%, Southampton 36%23' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 29%, Southampton 36%24' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 30%, Southampton 36%25' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 30%, Southampton 36%26' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 30%, Southampton 36%27' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 30%, Southampton 36%28' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 30%, Southampton 36%29' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 31%, Southampton 36%30' · 0–0 · Norwich 34%, draw 31%, Southampton 36%31' · 0–0 · Norwich 33%, draw 31%, Southampton 35%32' · 0–0 · Norwich 33%, draw 31%, Southampton 35%33' · 0–0 · Norwich 33%, draw 32%, Southampton 35%34' · 0–0 · Norwich 33%, draw 32%, Southampton 35%35' · 0–0 · Norwich 33%, draw 32%, Southampton 35%36' · 0–0 · Norwich 33%, draw 32%, Southampton 35%37' · 0–0 · Norwich 33%, draw 33%, Southampton 35%38' · 0–0 · Norwich 33%, draw 33%, Southampton 34%39' · 0–0 · Norwich 32%, draw 33%, Southampton 34%40' · 0–0 · Norwich 32%, draw 34%, Southampton 34%41' · 0–0 · Norwich 32%, draw 34%, Southampton 34%42' · 0–0 · Norwich 32%, draw 34%, Southampton 34%43' · 0–0 · Norwich 32%, draw 35%, Southampton 34%44' · 0–0 · Norwich 32%, draw 35%, Southampton 33%45' · 0–0 · Norwich 32%, draw 35%, Southampton 33%45+1' · 0–0 · Norwich 31%, draw 36%, Southampton 33%45+2' · 0–0 · Norwich 31%, draw 36%, Southampton 33%45+3' · 0–0 · Norwich 31%, draw 36%, Southampton 33%HT · 0–0 · Norwich 31%, draw 37%, Southampton 33%46' · 0–0 · Norwich 31%, draw 37%, Southampton 32%47' · 0–0 · Norwich 31%, draw 37%, Southampton 32%48' · 0–0 · Norwich 31%, draw 37%, Southampton 32%49' · 0–0 · Norwich 30%, draw 38%, Southampton 32%50' · 0–0 · Norwich 30%, draw 38%, Southampton 32%51' · 0–0 · Norwich 30%, draw 39%, Southampton 31%52' · 0–0 · Norwich 30%, draw 39%, Southampton 31%53' · 0–0 · Norwich 29%, draw 40%, Southampton 31%54' · 0–1 · Norwich 10%, draw 23%, Southampton 67%55' · 0–1 · Norwich 10%, draw 23%, Southampton 67%56' · 0–1 · Norwich 9%, draw 23%, Southampton 67%57' · 0–1 · Norwich 9%, draw 23%, Southampton 68%58' · 0–1 · Norwich 9%, draw 23%, Southampton 68%59' · 0–1 · Norwich 8%, draw 23%, Southampton 69%60' · 0–1 · Norwich 8%, draw 23%, Southampton 69%61' · 0–1 · Norwich 8%, draw 23%, Southampton 69%62' · 0–1 · Norwich 8%, draw 23%, Southampton 70%63' · 0–1 · Norwich 7%, draw 23%, Southampton 70%64' · 0–1 · Norwich 7%, draw 22%, Southampton 71%65' · 0–1 · Norwich 7%, draw 22%, Southampton 71%66' · 0–1 · Norwich 6%, draw 22%, Southampton 71%67' · 0–1 · Norwich 6%, draw 22%, Southampton 72%68' · 0–1 · Norwich 6%, draw 22%, Southampton 72%69' · 0–1 · Norwich 6%, draw 21%, Southampton 73%70' · 0–1 · Norwich 5%, draw 21%, Southampton 73%71' · 0–1 · Norwich 5%, draw 21%, Southampton 74%72' · 0–1 · Norwich 5%, draw 21%, Southampton 74%73' · 0–1 · Norwich 5%, draw 20%, Southampton 75%74' · 0–1 · Norwich 4%, draw 20%, Southampton 76%75' · 0–1 · Norwich 4%, draw 20%, Southampton 76%76' · 0–1 · Norwich 4%, draw 19%, Southampton 77%77' · 0–1 · Norwich 4%, draw 19%, Southampton 78%78' · 0–1 · Norwich 3%, draw 18%, Southampton 78%79' · 0–1 · Norwich 3%, draw 18%, Southampton 79%80' · 0–1 · Norwich 3%, draw 17%, Southampton 80%81' · 0–1 · Norwich 2%, draw 17%, Southampton 81%82' · 0–1 · Norwich 2%, draw 16%, Southampton 81%83' · 0–1 · Norwich 2%, draw 16%, Southampton 82%84' · 0–1 · Norwich 2%, draw 15%, Southampton 83%85' · 0–1 · Norwich 2%, draw 14%, Southampton 84%86' · 0–1 · Norwich 1%, draw 14%, Southampton 85%87' · 0–1 · Norwich 1%, draw 13%, Southampton 86%88' · 0–1 · Norwich 1%, draw 12%, Southampton 87%89' · 0–1 · Norwich 1%, draw 11%, Southampton 88%90' · 0–1 · Norwich 1%, draw 10%, Southampton 90%90+1' · 0–1 · Norwich 0%, draw 9%, Southampton 91%90+2' · 0–1 · Norwich 0%, draw 7%, Southampton 92%90+3' · 0–1 · Norwich 0%, draw 6%, Southampton 94%

Last reading, 90+3': 0% · 6% · 94%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Southampton 38% to win: they did.

  1. 15'Southampton:Ryan Manning 2245 +8
  2. 22'Southampton:Caspar Jander 2223 +18 for Flynn Downes 2177 +6
  3. 26'Southampton:Zach Abbott 1772 +6*
  4. 45'Southampton:Welington 2067 +11* for Ryan Manning 2245 +8
  5. 45'Southampton:James Bree 2222 +10 for Zach Abbott 1772 +6*
  6. 48'Norwich:Jacob Wright 1850 0
  7. 54'Southampton:Kuryu Matsuki 2172 +29
  8. 61'Norwich:Paris Maghoma 1979 0 for Anis Ben Slimane 2051 −2
  9. 61'Norwich:J. Makama 1959 0 for Mathias Kvistgaarden 2029 −1
  10. 70'Southampton:Cyle Larin 2093 0 for Samuel Edozie 2001 +6*
  11. 72'Norwich:Anthony Musaba 2136 −2 for Oscar Schwartau 2051 −3
  12. 72'Norwich:Ante Crnac 1891 −8* for Andre Brooks 2028 −2
  13. 76'Norwich:Samuel Field 1980 −1 for Jacob Wright 1850 0
  14. 77'Norwich:Samuel Field 1980 −1
  15. 82'Southampton:Divin Mubama 1861 −6* for Lewis Dobbin 1899 +12*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GD. Grimshaw1812−8*
DJ. Stacey2008−4
DRuairi McConville2158−26
DJ. Córdoba2100−6
DB. Chrisene2068−21*
MJacob Wright18500
MP. Mattsson2086−15
MA. Brooks2028−2
MA. Ben Slimane2051−2
MO. Schwartau2051−3
FM. Kvistgaarden2029−1
CP. Clement2065−8
GDaniel Peretz2235+23
DZ. Abbott1772+6*
DJ. Stephens2152+27
DK. Schlotterbeck2117+18
DR. Manning2245+8
MF. Downes2177+6
MJ. Ward-Prowse2040+40
MK. Matsuki2172+29
MF. Azaz2270+19
MS. Edozie2001+6*
FL. Dobbin1899+12*
CTonda Eckert2141+22
Before kick-off: 36% · 26% · 38%(Norwich · draw · Southampton)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 0–1 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Norwich €5.3M, Southampton €5.1M.
  • Norwich were without 2 expected starters: K. McLean (2023) and M. Touré (1976).
  • Home advantage made Norwich the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Norwich

19th in Championship · 9 pts from 9

  • 10 OctLSwansea 2047
  • 20 SepLBolton 2087
  • 17 SepLManchester City 1967
  • 12 SepLMiddlesbrough 2103
  • 9 SepWBirmingham 2067

Southampton

13th in Championship · 13 pts from 9

  • 11 OctWPortsmouth 2116
  • 19 SepLWrexham 2168
  • 12 SepWBristol City 2154
  • 8 SepWSwansea 2141
  • 5 SepDLincoln 2135

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Norwich9 /967.92%16%1%7th
Southampton13 /974.810%47%0%3rd
Norwich
Southampton

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Ruairi McConville
Ruairi McConville

Norwich · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2184

R. Manning
R. Manning

Southampton · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2236

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Philippe Clement

Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy

Tonda Eckert

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Norwich: possession-based (how Philippe Clement plays) · Southampton: possession-based (how Tonda Eckert plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.