Championship · Regular Season - 11
Norwich 0–1 Portsmouth
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Carrow Road, Norwich
NorwichTeam 1977
PortsmouthTeam 1806Match story
Norwich · draw · PortsmouthBefore kick-off: 57% · 24% · 20%
Last reading, 90+5': 0% · 4% · 96%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Marko Milovanović 51' (pen)
We gave Norwich 57% to win: Portsmouth won.
- Darlin Yongwa 1989 −1 for Benjamin Chrisene 2055 −1345'
Norwich:Darlin Yongwa 1989 −1 for Benjamin Chrisene 2055 −13 - 51'Marko Milovanović 1736 +63 (pen.)
Portsmouth:Marko Milovanović 1736 +63 (pen.) - 55'Marko Milovanović 1736 +63
Portsmouth:Marko Milovanović 1736 +63 - Lucien Mahovo 1397 −8* for Andre Brooks 2024 −457'
Norwich:Lucien Mahovo 1397 −8* for Andre Brooks 2024 −4 - Paris Maghoma 1979 −1 for Anis Ben Slimane 2046 −557'
Norwich:Paris Maghoma 1979 −1 for Anis Ben Slimane 2046 −5 - 60'Ebou Adams 1854 +20 for Iyad Mohamed 1650 +82
Portsmouth:Ebou Adams 1854 +20 for Iyad Mohamed 1650 +82 - 64'Ryan Kavuma-McQueen 1629 +35
Portsmouth:Ryan Kavuma-McQueen 1629 +35 - Oscar Schwartau 2045 −766'
Norwich:Oscar Schwartau 2045 −7 - 70'Odin Bailey 1891 +4 for Ryan Kavuma-McQueen 1629 +35
Portsmouth:Odin Bailey 1891 +4 for Ryan Kavuma-McQueen 1629 +35 - 71'Tyrese Shade 1822 +6 for Marko Milovanović 1736 +63
Portsmouth:Tyrese Shade 1822 +6 for Marko Milovanović 1736 +63 - Mathias Kvistgaarden 2028 −1 for Oscar Schwartau 2045 −773'
Norwich:Mathias Kvistgaarden 2028 −1 for Oscar Schwartau 2045 −7 - 80'Terry Devlin 2025 +1 for Marlon Pack 1903 +48
Portsmouth:Terry Devlin 2025 +1 for Marlon Pack 1903 +48 - Mathias Kvistgaarden 2028 −190'
Norwich:Mathias Kvistgaarden 2028 −1 - Darlin Yongwa 1989 −190+3'
Norwich:Darlin Yongwa 1989 −1
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 57% · 24% · 20%(Norwich · draw · Portsmouth)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (11%); the result 0–1 had 4%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Norwich €5.2M, Portsmouth €1.4M.
- Norwich were without 2 expected starters: V. Kovačević (2095) and K. McLean (2023).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Norwich
20th in Championship · 9 pts from 10
- 14 OctLSouthampton England Championship2036
- 10 OctLSwansea England Championship2047
- 20 SepLBolton England Championship2087
- 17 SepLManchester City England League Cup1967
- 12 SepLMiddlesbrough England Championship2103
Portsmouth
16th in Championship · 11 pts from 9
- 14 OctWSheffield Utd England Championship1748
- 11 OctLSouthampton England Championship1800
- 19 SepDBlackburn England Championship1782
- 12 SepDCharlton England Championship1838
- 5 SepWCardiff England Championship1784
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 9 /10 | 65.6 | 1% | 8% | 1% | 8th |
| Portsmouth | 11 /9 | 50.6 | 0% | <1% | 35% | 23rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Norwich · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2158

Portsmouth · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1962
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Norwich: possession-based (how Philippe Clement plays) · Portsmouth: balanced profile (how John Michael Lewis Mousinho plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.