UEFA Nations League · League B - 5
Northern Ireland vs Ukraine
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC
Northern Ireland host Ukraine on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (UEFA Nations League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Northern Ireland 39%, draw 29%, Ukraine 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Northern Ireland €7.2M, Ukraine €8.2M.
- Home advantage makes Northern Ireland the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Northern Ireland goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–011%
- 0–110%
- 0–010%
- 2–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores40%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: Northern Ireland 1994 · Ukraine 2058
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each team's last 4 UEFA Nations League matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Northern Ireland · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2209
Ukraine · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2417