League Two · Regular Season - 16
Northampton vs Rochdale
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Sixfields Stadium, Northampton
Northampton host Rochdale on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Northampton 47%, draw 28%, Rochdale 26%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Northampton €308K, Rochdale €369K.
- Rochdale's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Northampton goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 2–08%
- 0–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Northampton 1633 · Rochdale 1561
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Northampton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1764
Rochdale · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1604
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Northampton
21st in League Two · 14 pts from 13
- 7 NovLYork England FA Cup1645
- 3 NovLOldham England League Two1639
- 31 OctDAccrington ST England League Two1662
- 24 OctWColchester England League Two1616
- 20 OctLTranmere England League Two1604
Rochdale
20th in League Two · 15 pts from 14
- 7 NovDFleetwood Town England FA Cup1476
- 31 OctLPort Vale England League Two1565
- 24 OctLAccrington ST England League Two1636
- 20 OctDGrimsby England League Two1610
- 17 OctLCrewe England League Two1585
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 14 /13 | 57.1 | <1% | 2% | 16% | 20th |
| Rochdale | 15 /14 | 51.6 | 0% | <1% | 42% | 24th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Northampton: direct (how Chris Hogg plays) · Rochdale: balanced profile (how Ian Watson plays)