League Two · Regular Season - 13
Northampton vs Colchester
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Sixfields Stadium, Northampton
Northampton host Colchester on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Northampton 40%, draw 29%, Colchester 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Northampton €312K, Colchester €223K.
- Home advantage makes Northampton the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- League Two: O. Dale is the highest-rated forward (1920).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Northampton goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Northampton 1611 · Colchester 1623
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Northampton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1737
Colchester · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1649
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Northampton
22nd in League Two · 10 pts from 9
- 17 OctWGrimsby England League Two1529
- 10 OctDYork England League Two1523
- 6 OctLCambridge United England EFL Trophy1484
- 19 SepLRotherham England League Two1600
- 12 SepLShrewsbury England League Two1506
Colchester
20th in League Two · 11 pts from 10
- 17 OctDExeter City England League Two1636
- 10 OctLNewport County England League Two1653
- 3 OctDLuton England EFL Trophy1613
- 26 SepDShrewsbury England League Two1668
- 22 SepLPeterborough England EFL Trophy1498
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton | 10 /9 | 56.2 | 0% | 2% | 18% | 16th |
| Colchester | 11 /10 | 57.3 | <1% | 3% | 14% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Northampton: direct (how Chris Hogg plays) · Colchester: balanced profile (how Danny Cowley plays)