HNL · Regular Season - 11
NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Stadion Varteks
NK Varazdin host NK Slaven Belupo on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: NK Varazdin 55%, draw 25%, NK Slaven Belupo 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: NK Varazdin €564K, NK Slaven Belupo €324K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (HNL): NK Varazdin rank #10 of 11, NK Slaven Belupo #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. NK Varazdin goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 2–010%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: NK Varazdin 1674 · NK Slaven Belupo 1509
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
NK Varazdin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1619
NK Slaven Belupo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1555
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
NK Varazdin
3rd in HNL · 18 pts from 10
- 18 OctLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1714
- 11 OctWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1667
- 19 SepDNK Osijek HNL1655
- 14 SepDHNK Gorica HNL1657
- 4 SepDIstra 1961 HNL1668
NK Slaven Belupo
8th in HNL · 10 pts from 10
- 18 OctLDinamo Zagreb HNL1535
- 11 OctWHNK Rijeka HNL1487
- 18 SepDRudes HNL1464
- 13 SepLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1466
- 6 SepWNK Lokomotiva Zagreb HNL1446
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Varazdin | 18 /10 | 54.9 | <1% | 71% | 1% | 4th |
| NK Slaven Belupo | 10 /10 | 37.2 | 0% | 1% | 59% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
NK Varazdin: balanced profile (how Nikola Šafarić plays) · NK Slaven Belupo: balanced profile (how Silvijo Čabraja plays)