HNL · Regular Season - 13
NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Opus Arena, Osijek
NK Osijek host HNK Hajduk Split on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: NK Osijek 27%, draw 28%, HNK Hajduk Split 45%.
- Average value of the expected XI: NK Osijek €415K, HNK Hajduk Split €1.2M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. NK Osijek goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 2–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: NK Osijek 1614 · HNK Hajduk Split 1812
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
NK Osijek · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1687
HNK Hajduk Split · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1923
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
NK Osijek
4th in HNL · 17 pts from 10
- 17 OctDHNK Gorica HNL1583
- 10 OctLIstra 1961 HNL1661
- 19 SepDNK Varazdin HNL1612
- 12 SepWDinamo Zagreb HNL1597
- 5 SepLHNK Rijeka HNL1599
HNK Hajduk Split
1st in HNL · 22 pts from 10
- 22 OctWFC Thun UEFA Conference League1853
- 18 OctWNK Varazdin HNL1779
- 15 OctWAjax UEFA Conference League1810
- 10 OctWDinamo Zagreb HNL1778
- 20 SepLHNK Rijeka HNL1786
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek | 17 /10 | 49.7 | 0% | 29% | 4% | 5th |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 22 /10 | 67.3 | 10% | 99% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
NK Osijek: balanced profile (how F. Bessone plays) · HNK Hajduk Split: balanced profile (how Gonzalo García plays)