HNL · Regular Season - 10
NK Osijek 1–1 HNK Gorica
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Opus Arena, Osijek
NK OsijekTeam 1608HNK GoricaTeam 1544- Armando León 68'
- Jakov Pranjić 23'
We gave NK Osijek 47% to win: it ended in a draw.
- 23'Jakov Pranjić – assist Domagoj Pavičić –HNK Gorica:Jakov Pranjić – assist Domagoj Pavičić –
- Ivan Dolček – for Simun Mikolcic –29'NK Osijek:Ivan Dolček – for Simun Mikolcic –
- Izak Ježić31'NK Osijek:Izak Ježić
- Armando León –34'NK Osijek:Armando León –
- 35'frigan juraj –HNK Gorica:frigan juraj –
- Admir ljatifi – for Álejandro Cantero –45'NK Osijek:Admir ljatifi – for Álejandro Cantero –
- Marcel Heister – for Izak Ježić45'NK Osijek:Marcel Heister – for Izak Ježić
- 60'Goncalo Costa –HNK Gorica:Goncalo Costa –
- Ivan Barić – for Luka Tunjic –66'NK Osijek:Ivan Barić – for Luka Tunjic –
- 68'Ognjen Bakic – for frigan juraj –HNK Gorica:Ognjen Bakic – for frigan juraj –
- 68'Stefan Perić – for Jakov Pranjić –HNK Gorica:Stefan Perić – for Jakov Pranjić –
- Armando León – assist Admir ljatifi –68'NK Osijek:Armando León – assist Admir ljatifi –
- 75'Mario CarevićHNK Gorica:Mario Carević
- Luka Posavec – for Jay Kruiver –76'NK Osijek:Luka Posavec – for Jay Kruiver –
- 80'ivan cvijanovic – for Bruno Bogojević –HNK Gorica:ivan cvijanovic – for Bruno Bogojević –
- 86'Kevin Custovic – for Domagoj Pavičić –HNK Gorica:Kevin Custovic – for Domagoj Pavičić –
- 90+3'Filip Braut –HNK Gorica:Filip Braut –
Before kick-off (provisional): 47% · 28% · 26%(NK Osijek · draw · HNK Gorica)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the expected XI: NK Osijek €411K, HNK Gorica €357K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (HNL): NK Osijek ranked #3 of 11, HNK Gorica #11.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
NK Osijek
5th in HNL · 16 pts from 9
- 10 OctLIstra 1961 HNL1661
- 19 SepDNK Varazdin HNL1612
- 12 SepWDinamo Zagreb HNL1597
- 5 SepLHNK Rijeka HNL1599
- 30 AugWNK Slaven Belupo HNL1636
HNK Gorica
10th in HNL · 5 pts from 9
- 9 OctLRudes HNL1547
- 19 SepWIstra 1961 HNL1496
- 14 SepDNK Varazdin HNL1533
- 5 SepLDinamo Zagreb HNL1538
- 31 AugDHNK Rijeka HNL1534
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Osijek | 16 /9 | 50.0 | <1% | 29% | 5% | 5th |
| HNK Gorica | 5 /9 | 34.5 | 0% | <1% | 74% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
NK Osijek · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1695
HNK Gorica · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Average) · Elo 1582
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
NK Osijek: balanced profile (how Federico Bessone Luna plays) · HNK Gorica: balanced profile (how Mario Carević plays)