HNL · Regular Season - 10
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–0 Istra 1961
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · Stadion Kranjčevićeva, Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebTeam 1530Istra 1961Team 1577- Fran Karačić 11'
- Lovre kulusic 46'
We gave NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 38% to win: they did.
- Fran Karačić – assist Leon Belcar –11'NK Lokomotiva Zagreb:Fran Karačić – assist Leon Belcar –
- Lovre kulusic – assist Fran Karačić –46'NK Lokomotiva Zagreb:Lovre kulusic – assist Fran Karačić –
- 52'Niko Šepić –Istra 1961:Niko Šepić –
- 61'Dominik Celija – for Niko Šepić –Istra 1961:Dominik Celija – for Niko Šepić –
- 61'hamza jaganjac – for Dukan Ahmeti –Istra 1961:hamza jaganjac – for Dukan Ahmeti –
- 69'Silvio Gorican – for Nik Skafar Zuzic –Istra 1961:Silvio Gorican – for Nik Skafar Zuzic –
- 69'Matija Kablar – for Demirel hodzic –Istra 1961:Matija Kablar – for Demirel hodzic –
- dominik thaqi – for Leon Belcar –73'NK Lokomotiva Zagreb:dominik thaqi – for Leon Belcar –
- Mirko Marić – for Dušan Vuković –73'NK Lokomotiva Zagreb:Mirko Marić – for Dušan Vuković –
- Matej Mitrović – for Ivan katic –73'NK Lokomotiva Zagreb:Matej Mitrović – for Ivan katic –
- Marijan Čabraja – for jakov gurlica –77'NK Lokomotiva Zagreb:Marijan Čabraja – for jakov gurlica –
- 88'vinko rozic – for Isaac Aguiar Tomich –Istra 1961:vinko rozic – for Isaac Aguiar Tomich –
- Erbol Atabaev – for Feta Fetai –90+1'NK Lokomotiva Zagreb:Erbol Atabaev – for Feta Fetai –
Before kick-off (provisional): 38% · 29% · 33%(NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · draw · Istra 1961)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–0 had 7%.
- Average value of the expected XI: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb €398K, Istra 1961 €454K.
- Home advantage made NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (HNL): NK Lokomotiva Zagreb ranked #4 of 11, Istra 1961 #9.
- Only 2 of Istra 1961's expected starters were past their position's peak age.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
8th in HNL · 7 pts from 9
- 11 OctLNK Varazdin HNL1543
- 20 SepLDinamo Zagreb HNL1523
- 12 SepDHNK Rijeka HNL1518
- 6 SepLNK Slaven Belupo HNL1523
- 31 AugLHNK Hajduk Split HNL1502
Istra 1961
6th in HNL · 12 pts from 9
- 10 OctWNK Osijek HNL1566
- 19 SepLHNK Gorica HNL1566
- 13 SepWRudes HNL1511
- 4 SepDNK Varazdin HNL1522
- 29 AugDDinamo Zagreb HNL1510
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 7 /9 | 36.3 | 0% | 1% | 64% | 8th |
| Istra 1961 | 12 /9 | 43.8 | 0% | 7% | 19% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 1575
Istra 1961 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 (Good) · Elo 1706
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: balanced profile (how Nikica Jelavić plays) · Istra 1961: balanced profile (how Javier Antonio Cabello Rubio plays)