HNL · Regular Season - 14
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs HNK Hajduk Split
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb host HNK Hajduk Split on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (HNL); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 21%, draw 26%, HNK Hajduk Split 54%.
- Average value of the expected XI: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb €400K, HNK Hajduk Split €1.2M.
- Style contrast in discipline (HNL): NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rank #8 of 11, HNK Hajduk Split #3.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb goals first.
- 1–112%
- 0–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–07%
- 1–06%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1517 · HNK Hajduk Split 1816
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Average) · Elo 1473
HNK Hajduk Split · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1915
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
9th in HNL · 11 pts from 13
- 6 NovLRudes HNL1511
- 1 NovLNK Osijek HNL1529
- 24 OctDHNK Gorica HNL1536
- 17 OctWIstra 1961 HNL1492
- 11 OctLNK Varazdin HNL1538
HNK Hajduk Split
1st in HNL · 29 pts from 13
- 8 NovWNK Osijek HNL1803
- 5 NovLLincoln Red Imps FC UEFA Conference League1860
- 31 OctWHNK Gorica HNL1813
- 26 OctDIstra 1961 HNL1866
- 22 OctWFC Thun UEFA Conference League1848
Season outlook
From the HNL simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 11 /13 | 33.7 | 0% | <1% | 88% | 9th |
| HNK Hajduk Split | 29 /13 | 69.0 | 10% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: balanced profile (how Nikica Jelavić plays) · HNK Hajduk Split: balanced profile (how Gonzalo García plays)