First League · Regular Season - 16
Nizhny Novgorod vs Arsenal Tula
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Sovcombank Arena, Nizhny Novgorod
Nizhny Novgorod host Arsenal Tula on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nizhny Novgorod 61%, draw 23%, Arsenal Tula 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nizhny Novgorod €571K, Arsenal Tula €235K.
- First League: N. Medvedev is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1742).
- Nizhny Novgorod are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nizhny Novgorod goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Nizhny Novgorod 1633 · Arsenal Tula 1429
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nizhny Novgorod · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1596
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nizhny Novgorod
1st in First League · 37 pts from 14
- 18 OctWUral Russia First League1619
- 10 OctWEnisey Russia First League1600
- 17 SepWLeningradets Russia First League1599
- 13 SepWTorpedo Moskva Russia First League1581
- 30 AugDVolga Ulyanovsk Russia First League1600
Arsenal Tula
11th in First League · 16 pts from 14
- 17 OctLFC UFA Russia First League1394
- 9 OctWSpartak Kostroma Russia First League1386
- 16 SepLEnisey Russia First League1448
- 13 SepDSka-khabarovsk Russia First League1426
- 5 SepLVolga Ulyanovsk Russia First League1443
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nizhny Novgorod | 37 /14 | 71.2 | 74% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
| Arsenal Tula | 16 /14 | 40.6 | 0% | <1% | 13% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: low-volume