Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 11
Nice vs Paris Saint Germain
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 16:15 UTC · Allianz Riviera, Nice
Nice host Paris Saint Germain on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Ligue 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nice 11%, draw 18%, Paris Saint Germain 71%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nice €5.2M, Paris Saint Germain €54.6M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Ligue 1 matchday 11: 521 points.
- Draw chance 18%, below the Ligue 1 average of 24% this round.
- Ligue 1: M. Safonov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2550).
- Paris Saint Germain have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nice goals first.
- 0–211%
- 1–29%
- 0–39%
- 0–19%
- 1–18%
- 1–38%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com0–2expected 1.1 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–2expected 5.0 pts
Team Elo: Nice 1970 · Paris Saint Germain 2491
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nice · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2034
Paris Saint Germain · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2597
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nice
6th in Ligue 1 · 17 pts from 10
- 8 NovWAngers Ligue 12005
- 30 OctWRennes Ligue 11944
- 23 OctWStade Brestois 29 Ligue 11963
- 18 OctLLyon Ligue 11947
- 11 OctWStrasbourg Ligue 11896
Paris Saint Germain
1st in Ligue 1 · 23 pts from 10
- 7 NovWEstac Troyes Ligue 12502
- 3 NovWVillarreal UEFA Champions League2499
- 30 OctWLe Havre Ligue 12398
- 26 OctWLyon Ligue 12519
- 20 OctWBarcelona UEFA Champions League2504
Season outlook
From the Ligue 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 17 /10 | 48.2 | 0% | 5% | <1% | 9th |
| Paris Saint Germain | 23 /10 | 82.2 | 99% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nice: balanced profile (how Olivier Pantaloni plays) · Paris Saint Germain: possession-based · creative (how Luis Enrique plays)