League Two · Regular Season - 16
Newport County vs Swindon Town
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Rodney Parade, Newport
Newport County host Swindon Town on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Newport County 40%, draw 29%, Swindon Town 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Newport County €161K, Swindon Town €214K.
- Home advantage makes Newport County the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Newport County goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Newport County 1610 · Swindon Town 1617
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Newport County · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1670
Swindon Town · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1700
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Newport County
14th in League Two · 18 pts from 14
- 7 NovWWalsall England FA Cup1601
- 3 NovLCrystal Palace U21 England EFL Trophy1578
- 30 OctWChesterfield England League Two1554
- 24 OctLCheltenham England League Two1566
- 20 OctDRotherham England League Two1599
Swindon Town
13th in League Two · 19 pts from 14
- 10 NovLPlymouth England EFL Trophy1510
- 7 NovLMilton Keynes Dons England FA Cup1621
- 31 OctWRotherham England League Two1638
- 24 OctDBristol Rovers England League Two1604
- 20 OctWBarnet England League Two1507
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 18 /14 | 58.6 | 0% | 3% | 11% | 16th |
| Swindon Town | 19 /14 | 60.1 | <1% | 6% | 8% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Newport County: balanced profile (how H. Mullins plays) · Swindon Town: balanced profile (how Scott Holloway Ian plays)