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League Two · Regular Season - 10

Newport County 1–0 Colchester

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Rodney Parade, Newport

Newport County crestNewport CountyTeam 1558
1–0
Full time
HT 0–0
Colchester crestColchesterTeam 1603

Match story

Newport County · draw · Colchester

Before kick-off: 37% · 30% · 33%

Live chances: Newport County 97%, draw 3%, Colchester 0% at 90+4'1' · 0–0 · Newport County 37%, draw 30%, Colchester 33%2' · 0–0 · Newport County 37%, draw 30%, Colchester 33%3' · 0–0 · Newport County 37%, draw 30%, Colchester 33%4' · 0–0 · Newport County 37%, draw 30%, Colchester 33%5' · 0–0 · Newport County 37%, draw 30%, Colchester 33%6' · 0–0 · Newport County 37%, draw 30%, Colchester 33%7' · 0–0 · Newport County 37%, draw 31%, Colchester 33%8' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 31%, Colchester 33%9' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 31%, Colchester 33%10' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 31%, Colchester 33%11' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 31%, Colchester 33%12' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 31%, Colchester 33%13' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 32%, Colchester 33%14' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 32%, Colchester 32%15' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 32%, Colchester 32%16' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 32%, Colchester 32%17' · 0–0 · Newport County 36%, draw 32%, Colchester 32%18' · 0–0 · Newport County 35%, draw 32%, Colchester 32%19' · 0–0 · Newport County 35%, draw 33%, Colchester 32%20' · 0–0 · Newport County 35%, draw 33%, Colchester 32%21' · 0–0 · Newport County 35%, draw 33%, Colchester 32%22' · 0–0 · Newport County 35%, draw 33%, Colchester 32%23' · 0–0 · Newport County 35%, draw 33%, Colchester 32%24' · 0–0 · Newport County 35%, draw 34%, Colchester 32%25' · 0–0 · Newport County 35%, draw 34%, Colchester 32%26' · 0–0 · Newport County 34%, draw 34%, Colchester 31%27' · 0–0 · Newport County 34%, draw 34%, Colchester 31%28' · 0–0 · Newport County 34%, draw 34%, Colchester 31%29' · 0–0 · Newport County 34%, draw 35%, Colchester 31%30' · 0–0 · Newport County 34%, draw 35%, Colchester 31%31' · 0–0 · Newport County 34%, draw 35%, Colchester 31%32' · 0–0 · Newport County 34%, draw 36%, Colchester 31%33' · 0–0 · Newport County 34%, draw 36%, Colchester 31%34' · 0–0 · Newport County 33%, draw 36%, Colchester 31%35' · 0–0 · Newport County 33%, draw 36%, Colchester 30%36' · 0–0 · Newport County 33%, draw 37%, Colchester 30%37' · 0–0 · Newport County 33%, draw 37%, Colchester 30%38' · 0–0 · Newport County 33%, draw 37%, Colchester 30%39' · 0–0 · Newport County 33%, draw 38%, Colchester 30%40' · 0–0 · Newport County 32%, draw 38%, Colchester 30%41' · 0–0 · Newport County 32%, draw 38%, Colchester 30%42' · 0–0 · Newport County 32%, draw 39%, Colchester 29%43' · 0–0 · Newport County 32%, draw 39%, Colchester 29%44' · 0–0 · Newport County 32%, draw 39%, Colchester 29%45' · 0–0 · Newport County 31%, draw 40%, Colchester 29%45+1' · 0–0 · Newport County 31%, draw 40%, Colchester 29%45+2' · 0–0 · Newport County 31%, draw 40%, Colchester 29%45+3' · 0–0 · Newport County 31%, draw 41%, Colchester 28%HT · 0–0 · Newport County 31%, draw 41%, Colchester 28%47' · 0–0 · Newport County 30%, draw 41%, Colchester 28%48' · 0–0 · Newport County 30%, draw 42%, Colchester 28%49' · 0–0 · Newport County 30%, draw 42%, Colchester 28%50' · 0–0 · Newport County 30%, draw 43%, Colchester 27%51' · 0–0 · Newport County 29%, draw 43%, Colchester 27%52' · 0–0 · Newport County 29%, draw 44%, Colchester 27%53' · 0–0 · Newport County 29%, draw 45%, Colchester 27%54' · 0–0 · Newport County 28%, draw 45%, Colchester 26%55' · 0–0 · Newport County 28%, draw 46%, Colchester 26%56' · 0–0 · Newport County 28%, draw 46%, Colchester 26%57' · 0–0 · Newport County 27%, draw 47%, Colchester 25%58' · 0–0 · Newport County 27%, draw 48%, Colchester 25%59' · 0–0 · Newport County 27%, draw 49%, Colchester 25%60' · 0–0 · Newport County 26%, draw 49%, Colchester 25%61' · 0–0 · Newport County 26%, draw 50%, Colchester 24%62' · 0–0 · Newport County 26%, draw 51%, Colchester 24%63' · 0–0 · Newport County 25%, draw 51%, Colchester 24%64' · 0–0 · Newport County 25%, draw 52%, Colchester 23%65' · 0–0 · Newport County 24%, draw 53%, Colchester 23%66' · 0–0 · Newport County 24%, draw 54%, Colchester 22%67' · 0–0 · Newport County 23%, draw 55%, Colchester 22%68' · 0–0 · Newport County 23%, draw 55%, Colchester 22%69' · 0–0 · Newport County 23%, draw 56%, Colchester 21%70' · 0–0 · Newport County 22%, draw 57%, Colchester 21%71' · 0–0 · Newport County 22%, draw 58%, Colchester 20%72' · 0–0 · Newport County 21%, draw 59%, Colchester 20%73' · 0–0 · Newport County 21%, draw 60%, Colchester 19%74' · 0–0 · Newport County 20%, draw 61%, Colchester 19%75' · 0–0 · Newport County 20%, draw 62%, Colchester 18%76' · 0–0 · Newport County 19%, draw 63%, Colchester 18%77' · 0–0 · Newport County 18%, draw 64%, Colchester 17%78' · 0–0 · Newport County 18%, draw 66%, Colchester 17%79' · 0–0 · Newport County 17%, draw 67%, Colchester 16%80' · 1–0 · Newport County 84%, draw 14%, Colchester 2%81' · 1–0 · Newport County 85%, draw 14%, Colchester 1%82' · 1–0 · Newport County 85%, draw 13%, Colchester 1%83' · 1–0 · Newport County 86%, draw 13%, Colchester 1%84' · 1–0 · Newport County 87%, draw 12%, Colchester 1%85' · 1–0 · Newport County 88%, draw 11%, Colchester 1%86' · 1–0 · Newport County 88%, draw 11%, Colchester 1%87' · 1–0 · Newport County 89%, draw 10%, Colchester 1%88' · 1–0 · Newport County 90%, draw 9%, Colchester 1%89' · 1–0 · Newport County 91%, draw 8%, Colchester 0%90' · 1–0 · Newport County 92%, draw 8%, Colchester 0%90+1' · 1–0 · Newport County 93%, draw 7%, Colchester 0%90+2' · 1–0 · Newport County 94%, draw 6%, Colchester 0%90+3' · 1–0 · Newport County 95%, draw 4%, Colchester 0%90+4' · 1–0 · Newport County 97%, draw 3%, Colchester 0%

Last reading, 90+4': 97% · 3% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Newport County 37% to win: they did.

  1. 9'Newport County:Yahya Bamba 1048 +59 for Christian Doidge 1573 −4
  2. 40'Colchester:Jay Williams 1634 −11*
  3. 48'Colchester:Beryly Lubala 1666 −5
  4. 58'Colchester:Robert Donald Hunt 1663 −4 for Samuel Kuffour Jr. 1489 0
  5. 66'Colchester:ronnie harvey 1444 0 for Beryly Lubala 1666 −5
  6. 66'Colchester:Bradley ihionvein 1520 0 for Oscar thorn 1610 0
  7. 71'Newport County:Tanatswa Nyakuhwa 1601 +2* for Michael Adu-Poku 1491 +21
  8. 72'Newport County:Gerard Garner 1591 +3 for Shaquille Gwengwe 1524 +46*
  9. 76'Colchester:Bradley ihionvein 1520 0
  10. 79'Newport County:Tanatswa Nyakuhwa 1601 +2* assist Matty Jacobs 1732 +30
  11. 84'Colchester:Kien Connelly 1437 0 for Paul Digby 1536 −4
  12. 85'Newport County:Matthew Smith 1626 0 for Harrison Biggins 1612 +48

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GJ. Wright1641+17
DC. Norman1574+18
DL. Jenkins1615+18
DK. Cameron1682+29
DM. Jacob1732+30
MM. Dibley-Dias1741+10
MC. Brennan1587+20
MM. Adu-Poku1491+21
MH. Biggins1612+48
MS. Gwengwe1524+46*
FC. Doidge1573−4
CH. Mullins1631+33
GT. Lo-Tutala1735−28
DS. Kuffour14890
DJ. Tucker1727−10
DP. Digby1536−4
DE. Iandolo1716−10
MM. Sesay1645−3
MJ. Williams1634−11*
MH. Anderson1706−18*
MJ. Payne1649−16*
MB. Lubala1666−5
FO. Thorn16100
CD. Cowley1678−11
Before kick-off: 37% · 30% · 33%(Newport County · draw · Colchester)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–0 had 9%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Newport County €169K, Colchester €235K.
  • Home advantage made Newport County the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
  • Newport County's expected eleven was out of form: average -1.8 over 180 days.
  • Newport County were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Newport County

15th in League Two · 10 pts from 9

  • 6 OctDPlymouth 1513
  • 3 OctDGillingham 1609
  • 26 SepWGrimsby 1545
  • 22 SepWSwindon Town 1419
  • 19 SepDAccrington ST 1571

Colchester

19th in League Two · 10 pts from 8

  • 3 OctDLuton 1613
  • 26 SepDShrewsbury 1668
  • 22 SepLPeterborough 1498
  • 19 SepDCheltenham 1681
  • 12 SepDCrewe 1683

Season outlook

From the League Two simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Newport County10 /956.40%2%17%20th
Colchester10 /860.81%7%7%14th
Newport County
Colchester

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League Two

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

C. Doidge
C. Doidge

Newport County · +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1576

J. Williams
J. Williams

Colchester · +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1645

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Hayden Ian Mullins

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Danny Cowley

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Newport County: low-volume (how Hayden Ian Mullins plays) · Colchester: balanced profile (how Danny Cowley plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.