League Two · Regular Season - 14
Newport County vs Chesterfield
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Rodney Parade, Newport
Newport County host Chesterfield on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Newport County 33%, draw 29%, Chesterfield 38%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Newport County €144K, Chesterfield €320K.
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Newport County goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–28%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Newport County 1588 · Chesterfield 1694
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Newport County · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1571
Chesterfield · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.5 (Average) · Elo 1549
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Newport County
11th in League Two · 14 pts from 11
- 17 OctDYork England League Two1574
- 10 OctWColchester England League Two1590
- 6 OctDPlymouth England EFL Trophy1513
- 3 OctDGillingham England League Two1609
- 26 SepWGrimsby England League Two1545
Chesterfield
7th in League Two · 15 pts from 11
- 17 OctLPort Vale England League Two1762
- 10 OctDCrawley Town England League Two1766
- 3 OctWTranmere England League Two1756
- 26 SepLCheltenham England League Two1766
- 22 SepDPort Vale England EFL Trophy1566
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newport County | 14 /11 | 58.0 | <1% | 3% | 12% | 15th |
| Chesterfield | 15 /11 | 68.2 | 2% | 31% | 1% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Newport County: balanced profile (how Hayden Ian Mullins plays) · Chesterfield: possession-based · low-block (how Paul Anthony Cook plays)