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Premier League · Regular Season - 7

Newcastle 0–1 Aston Villa

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 16:30 UTC · St James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle crestNewcastleTeam 2317
0–1
Full time
HT 0–1
Aston Villa crestAston VillaTeam 2308

Match story

Newcastle · draw · Aston Villa

Before kick-off: 43% · 27% · 30%

Live chances: Newcastle 0%, draw 0%, Aston Villa 100% at 90+7'1' · 0–0 · Newcastle 43%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 30%2' · 0–0 · Newcastle 43%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 30%3' · 0–0 · Newcastle 43%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 30%4' · 0–0 · Newcastle 43%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 30%5' · 0–0 · Newcastle 43%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 30%6' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 30%7' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 30%8' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 30%9' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 30%10' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 30%11' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 30%12' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 30%13' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 28%, Aston Villa 30%14' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 30%15' · 0–0 · Newcastle 42%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 30%16' · 0–0 · Newcastle 41%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 30%17' · 0–0 · Newcastle 41%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 30%18' · 0–0 · Newcastle 41%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 30%19' · 0–0 · Newcastle 41%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 30%20' · 0–0 · Newcastle 41%, draw 29%, Aston Villa 30%21' · 0–0 · Newcastle 41%, draw 30%, Aston Villa 30%22' · 0–0 · Newcastle 41%, draw 30%, Aston Villa 30%23' · 0–0 · Newcastle 41%, draw 30%, Aston Villa 30%24' · 0–0 · Newcastle 40%, draw 30%, Aston Villa 29%25' · 0–0 · Newcastle 40%, draw 30%, Aston Villa 29%26' · 0–0 · Newcastle 40%, draw 30%, Aston Villa 29%27' · 0–0 · Newcastle 40%, draw 31%, Aston Villa 29%28' · 0–0 · Newcastle 40%, draw 31%, Aston Villa 29%29' · 0–0 · Newcastle 40%, draw 31%, Aston Villa 29%30' · 0–0 · Newcastle 40%, draw 31%, Aston Villa 29%31' · 0–0 · Newcastle 39%, draw 31%, Aston Villa 29%32' · 0–0 · Newcastle 39%, draw 32%, Aston Villa 29%33' · 0–0 · Newcastle 39%, draw 32%, Aston Villa 29%34' · 0–0 · Newcastle 39%, draw 32%, Aston Villa 29%35' · 0–0 · Newcastle 39%, draw 32%, Aston Villa 29%36' · 0–0 · Newcastle 39%, draw 33%, Aston Villa 29%37' · 0–1 · Newcastle 20%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 54%38' · 0–1 · Newcastle 19%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 54%39' · 0–1 · Newcastle 19%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 54%40' · 0–1 · Newcastle 19%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 54%41' · 0–1 · Newcastle 19%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 55%42' · 0–1 · Newcastle 18%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 55%43' · 0–1 · Newcastle 18%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 55%44' · 0–1 · Newcastle 18%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 55%45' · 0–1 · Newcastle 17%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 56%45+1' · 0–1 · Newcastle 17%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 56%45+2' · 0–1 · Newcastle 17%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 56%HT · 0–1 · Newcastle 16%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 57%46' · 0–1 · Newcastle 16%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 57%48' · 0–1 · Newcastle 16%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 57%49' · 0–1 · Newcastle 15%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 58%50' · 0–1 · Newcastle 15%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 58%51' · 0–1 · Newcastle 15%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 58%52' · 0–1 · Newcastle 14%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 59%53' · 0–1 · Newcastle 14%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 59%54' · 0–1 · Newcastle 14%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 60%55' · 0–1 · Newcastle 13%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 60%56' · 0–1 · Newcastle 13%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 61%57' · 0–1 · Newcastle 12%, draw 27%, Aston Villa 61%59' · 0–1 · Newcastle 12%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 62%60' · 0–1 · Newcastle 11%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 63%61' · 0–1 · Newcastle 11%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 63%62' · 0–1 · Newcastle 10%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 64%63' · 0–1 · Newcastle 10%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 64%64' · 0–1 · Newcastle 10%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 65%65' · 0–1 · Newcastle 9%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 65%66' · 0–1 · Newcastle 9%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 66%67' · 0–1 · Newcastle 9%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 66%68' · 0–1 · Newcastle 8%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 67%69' · 0–1 · Newcastle 8%, draw 25%, Aston Villa 67%70' · 0–1 · Newcastle 7%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 68%71' · 0–1 · Newcastle 7%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 69%72' · 0–1 · Newcastle 7%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 69%73' · 0–1 · Newcastle 6%, draw 24%, Aston Villa 70%74' · 0–1 · Newcastle 6%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 71%75' · 0–1 · Newcastle 6%, draw 23%, Aston Villa 72%76' · 0–1 · Newcastle 5%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 72%77' · 0–1 · Newcastle 5%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 73%78' · 0–1 · Newcastle 4%, draw 21%, Aston Villa 74%79' · 0–1 · Newcastle 4%, draw 21%, Aston Villa 75%80' · 0–1 · Newcastle 4%, draw 20%, Aston Villa 76%81' · 0–1 · Newcastle 3%, draw 20%, Aston Villa 77%82' · 0–1 · Newcastle 3%, draw 19%, Aston Villa 78%83' · 0–1 · Newcastle 3%, draw 18%, Aston Villa 79%85' · 0–1 · Newcastle 2%, draw 17%, Aston Villa 81%86' · 0–1 · Newcastle 2%, draw 16%, Aston Villa 82%87' · 0–1 · Newcastle 2%, draw 15%, Aston Villa 83%88' · 0–1 · Newcastle 1%, draw 14%, Aston Villa 85%89' · 0–1 · Newcastle 1%, draw 13%, Aston Villa 86%90' · 0–1 · Newcastle 1%, draw 11%, Aston Villa 88%90+1' · 0–1 · Newcastle 1%, draw 10%, Aston Villa 89%90+2' · 0–1 · Newcastle 0%, draw 9%, Aston Villa 91%90+3' · 0–1 · Newcastle 0%, draw 7%, Aston Villa 93%90+4' · 0–1 · Newcastle 0%, draw 5%, Aston Villa 95%90+5' · 0–1 · Newcastle 0%, draw 3%, Aston Villa 97%90+6' · 0–1 · Newcastle 0%, draw 1%, Aston Villa 99%90+7' · 0–1 · Newcastle 0%, draw 0%, Aston Villa 100%

Last reading, 90+7': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Newcastle 43% to win: Aston Villa won.

  1. 18'Newcastle:Sven Botman 2397 −6
  2. 18'Newcastle:Joelinton 2329 −4
  3. 25'Aston Villa:João Gomes 2279 +43
  4. 28'Aston Villa: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha 1840 +57
  5. 36'Aston Villa:Johan Manzambi 2410 +30 assist João Gomes 2279 +43
  6. 45'Aston Villa:John McGinn 2422 +13 for Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha 1840 +57
  7. 53'Newcastle:Nico González 2502 −33
  8. 55'Newcastle:Yoane Wissa 2295 −2
  9. 56'Newcastle:Bazoumana Touré 2089 0 for Matias Fernandez-Pardo 2145 0
  10. 56'Newcastle:William Osula 1906 0 for Joe Willock 2354 −4
  11. 72'Aston Villa:Leon Goretzka 2411 +3 for Emiliano Buendía 2457 +7
  12. 72'Aston Villa:Ross Barkley 2085 +10 for João Gomes 2279 +43
  13. 72'Aston Villa:Ibrahim Mbaye 2171 +12 for Johan Manzambi 2410 +30
  14. 77'Aston Villa:Pau Torres 2464 +3 for Aaron Wan-Bissaka 2336 +39
  15. 78'Newcastle:William Osula 1906 0
  16. 86'Newcastle:Malick Thiaw 2426 −7
  17. 90'Newcastle:Dan Burn 2218 −6 for Joelinton 2329 −4

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GL. Horníček22590
DL. Miley23180
DM. Thiaw2426−7
DS. Botman2397−6
DL. Hall2470−9
MNico González2502−33
MJoelinton2329−4
MJ. Willock2354−4
MY. Wissa2295−2
MH. Barnes2357−4
FM. Fernandez-Pardo21450
CM. Jaissle2369−7
GZ. Suzuki2226+22
DM. Cash2488+28
DV. Lindelöf2422+13
DT. Mings2321+45
DA. Wan-Bissaka2336+39
MB. Kamara2512+9
MJoão Gomes2279+43
MAlysson Edward1840+57
ME. Buendía2457+7
MJ. Manzambi2410+30
FN. Jackson2510+9
CUnai Emery2491+19
Before kick-off: 43% · 27% · 30%(Newcastle · draw · Aston Villa)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 0–1 had 6%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Newcastle €30.2M, Aston Villa €30.1M.
  • Aston Villa were without 1 expected starter: I. Maatsen (2407).
  • Home advantage made Newcastle the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Newcastle

11th in Premier League · 8 pts from 6

  • 12 OctLCoventry 2368
  • 19 SepWHull City 2288
  • 14 SepLLeeds 2350
  • 8 SepWMillwall 2349
  • 5 SepDBournemouth 2377

Aston Villa

16th in Premier League · 5 pts from 6

  • 14 OctWFenerbahçe 2325
  • 10 OctDBrentford 2394
  • 19 SepWTottenham 2344
  • 16 SepWCoventry 2121
  • 12 SepLNottingham Forest 2238

Season outlook

From the Premier League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Newcastle8 /651.50%9%3%10th
Aston Villa5 /653.70%14%2%7th
Newcastle
Aston Villa

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Premier League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

S. Botman
S. Botman

Newcastle · +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2403

J. Manzambi
J. Manzambi

Aston Villa · +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 2380

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Matthias Jaissle

Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative

Unai Emery Etxegoien

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Newcastle: balanced profile (how Matthias Jaissle plays) · Aston Villa: low-block (how Unai Emery Etxegoien plays)