Premier League · Regular Season - 11
Newcastle vs Arsenal
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 17:30 UTC · St. James' Park, Newcastle
Newcastle host Arsenal on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Newcastle 20%, draw 25%, Arsenal 54%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Newcastle €23.8M, Arsenal €52.8M.
- Premier League: David Raya is the highest-rated goalkeeper (2707).
- Arsenal's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.7 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Arsenal's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Newcastle goals first.
- 1–112%
- 0–110%
- 1–210%
- 0–29%
- 0–07%
- 1–36%
- Other scores46%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.9 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 4.1 pts
Team Elo: Newcastle 2308 · Arsenal 2612
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Newcastle · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.2 (Average) · Elo 2413
Arsenal · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +7.6 (Elite) · Elo 2679
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Newcastle
12th in Premier League · 12 pts from 10
- 7 NovDFulham Premier League2277
- 2 NovLEverton Premier League2327
- 29 OctLEverton England League Cup2325
- 25 OctWCrystal Palace Premier League2295
- 17 OctLAston Villa Premier League2352
Arsenal
1st in Premier League · 27 pts from 10
- 7 NovWHull City Premier League2613
- 4 NovWSlavia Praha UEFA Champions League2617
- 1 NovWLiverpool Premier League2604
- 27 OctDFleetwood Town England League Cup2289
- 24 OctWEverton Premier League2617
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 12 /10 | 48.9 | 0% | 2% | 3% | 13th |
| Arsenal | 27 /10 | 84.6 | 77% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Newcastle: balanced profile (how Matthias Jaissle plays) · Arsenal: balanced profile (how Mikel Arteta plays)