A-League · Regular Season - 3
Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 04:00 UTC · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
Newcastle Jets host Wellington Phoenix on Sat 31 Oct 2026 (A-League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Newcastle Jets 36%, draw 29%, Wellington Phoenix 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Newcastle Jets €359K, Wellington Phoenix €298K.
- Home advantage makes Newcastle Jets the favourite here: it adds 2 points to their win chance.
- J. Oluwayemi, I. Hughes, D. Edwards, P. Retre, R. Najjarine, A. Rufer and I. Eze (Wellington Phoenix) have not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Newcastle Jets goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–19%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–1expected 0.6 pts
Team Elo: Newcastle Jets 1568 · Wellington Phoenix 1585
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches; Wellington Phoenix from last season's line-ups (latest 24 April 2026).
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Newcastle Jets · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1625
Wellington Phoenix · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 (Poor) · Elo 1534
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Newcastle Jets
5th in A-League · 1 pts from 1
- 17 OctDCentral Coast Mariners A-League1559
- 13 OctLGamba Osaka AFC Champions League1604
- 15 SepLKashima AFC Champions League1637
- 16 MayDSydney A-League1742
- 9 MayDSydney A-League1725
Wellington Phoenix
2nd in A-League · 3 pts from 1
- 18 OctWMelbourne Victory A-League1602
- 24 AprLMacarthur A-League1562
- 18 AprWWestern Sydney Wanderers A-League1574
- 12 AprLMelbourne City A-League1576
- 5 AprWMelbourne Victory A-League1551
Season outlook
From the A-League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1 /1 | 34.9 | 4% | 28% | 22% | 8th |
| Wellington Phoenix | 3 /1 | 37.5 | 9% | 42% | 11% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: low-volume
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Newcastle Jets: balanced profile (how Mark Milligan plays) · Wellington Phoenix: low-volume (how Giancarlo Italiano plays)