Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 30
New York Red Bulls 0–2 Toronto FC
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison
New York Red BullsTeam 1857Toronto FCTeam 1736- Justin Che 3' (og)
- Dániel Sallói 82'
We gave New York Red Bulls 55% to win: Toronto FC won.
- 3'Justin Che 1812 −6 (own goal)Toronto FC:Justin Che 1812 −6 (own goal)
- 28'Jackson Gilman 1659 +66* for Kobe Franklin 1658 +23*Toronto FC:Jackson Gilman 1659 +66* for Kobe Franklin 1658 +23*
- Emil Forsberg 1725 −7 for Adri Mehmeti 1879 −845'New York Red Bulls:Emil Forsberg 1725 −7 for Adri Mehmeti 1879 −8
- Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 1612 −10 for Cade Cowell 1901 −1045'New York Red Bulls:Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 1612 −10 for Cade Cowell 1901 −10
- 52'Zane Monlouis 1575 +47Toronto FC:Zane Monlouis 1575 +47
- Jorge Ruvalcaba 1923 −7 for Cameron Harper 1919 −1560'New York Red Bulls:Jorge Ruvalcaba 1923 −7 for Cameron Harper 1919 −15
- Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 1894 −6 for Dylan Nealis 1897 −1460'New York Red Bulls:Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 1894 −6 for Dylan Nealis 1897 −14
- 67'Lewis Morgan 1840 +17Toronto FC:Lewis Morgan 1840 +17
- 68'Derrick Etienne Jr. 1690 +6 for Theo Corbeanu 1838 +15Toronto FC:Derrick Etienne Jr. 1690 +6 for Theo Corbeanu 1838 +15
- 68'Dániel Sallói 1825 +11 for Djordje Mihailovic 1877 +11Toronto FC:Dániel Sallói 1825 +11 for Djordje Mihailovic 1877 +11
- Pedro Castro for Justin Che 1812 −671'New York Red Bulls:Pedro Castro for Justin Che 1812 −6
- 82'Dániel Sallói 1825 +11 assist Jonathan Osorio 1751 +82Toronto FC:Dániel Sallói 1825 +11 assist Jonathan Osorio 1751 +82
- 86'Alonso 1829 +1 for Lewis Morgan 1840 +17Toronto FC:Alonso 1829 +1 for Lewis Morgan 1840 +17
- 86'Richard Chukwu 1531 −2* for Josh Sargent 1895 +14Toronto FC:Richard Chukwu 1531 −2* for Josh Sargent 1895 +14
- 87'Derrick Etienne Jr. 1690 +6Toronto FC:Derrick Etienne Jr. 1690 +6
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 55% · 24% · 20%(New York Red Bulls · draw · Toronto FC)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 0–2 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: New York Red Bulls €2.0M, Toronto FC €1.4M.
- Toronto FC were without 2 expected starters: R. Laryea (1900) and B. Kuscevic (1852).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
New York Red Bulls
8th in MLS · 36 pts from 29
- 14 OctLDC United MLS1881
- 10 OctWSan Diego MLS1862
- 30 SepLSt. Louis City MLS1793
- 18 SepWNew York City FC MLS1840
- 12 SepWColumbus Crew MLS1809
Toronto FC
11th in MLS · 33 pts from 29
- 14 OctDOrlando City SC MLS1813
- 10 OctWCF Montreal MLS1810
- 27 SepLNashville SC MLS1766
- 20 SepLSt. Louis City MLS1786
- 12 SepLOrlando City SC MLS1789
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Red Bulls | 36 /29 | 41.8 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 19th |
| Toronto FC | 33 /29 | 37.5 | 0% | 0% | 19% | 28th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
New York Red Bulls · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1710
Toronto FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1893
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
New York Red Bulls: balanced profile (how Michael Bradley plays) · Toronto FC: balanced profile (how Robin Lucius Fraser plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.