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Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 28

New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Sports Illustrated Stadium, Harrison

New York Red Bulls crestNew York Red BullsTeam 1838
4–1
Full time
HT 3–0
San Diego crestSan DiegoTeam 1906

Match story

New York Red Bulls · draw · San Diego

Before kick-off: 40% · 28% · 32%

Live chances: New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0% at 90+8'2' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 40%, draw 28%, San Diego 32%3' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 40%, draw 28%, San Diego 32%4' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 28%, San Diego 32%5' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 28%, San Diego 32%6' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 28%, San Diego 32%7' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 29%, San Diego 32%8' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 29%, San Diego 32%9' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 29%, San Diego 32%10' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 29%, San Diego 32%11' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 29%, San Diego 32%12' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 29%, San Diego 32%13' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 30%, San Diego 32%14' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 38%, draw 30%, San Diego 32%15' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 38%, draw 30%, San Diego 32%16' · 0–0 · New York Red Bulls 38%, draw 30%, San Diego 32%17' · 1–0 · New York Red Bulls 68%, draw 20%, San Diego 12%18' · 1–0 · New York Red Bulls 68%, draw 21%, San Diego 12%19' · 1–0 · New York Red Bulls 68%, draw 21%, San Diego 12%20' · 1–0 · New York Red Bulls 68%, draw 21%, San Diego 12%21' · 2–0 · New York Red Bulls 90%, draw 7%, San Diego 3%22' · 2–0 · New York Red Bulls 90%, draw 7%, San Diego 2%23' · 2–0 · New York Red Bulls 90%, draw 7%, San Diego 2%24' · 2–0 · New York Red Bulls 90%, draw 7%, San Diego 2%25' · 2–0 · New York Red Bulls 90%, draw 7%, San Diego 2%26' · 2–0 · New York Red Bulls 91%, draw 7%, San Diego 2%27' · 2–0 · New York Red Bulls 91%, draw 7%, San Diego 2%28' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%29' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%30' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%31' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%32' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%33' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%34' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%35' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%36' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%37' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%38' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%39' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%40' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%41' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%42' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%43' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%44' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%45' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%45+1' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%45+2' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%45+3' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%45+4' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%45+5' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%45+6' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%45+7' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%45+8' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%HT · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%46' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%47' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%48' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%49' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%50' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%51' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%52' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%53' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%54' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%55' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%56' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%57' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%58' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%59' · 3–0 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%60' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 95%, draw 4%, San Diego 1%61' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 96%, draw 4%, San Diego 1%62' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 96%, draw 4%, San Diego 1%63' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 96%, draw 4%, San Diego 1%64' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 96%, draw 4%, San Diego 1%65' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 96%, draw 3%, San Diego 0%66' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 96%, draw 3%, San Diego 0%67' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 96%, draw 3%, San Diego 0%68' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 97%, draw 3%, San Diego 0%69' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 97%, draw 3%, San Diego 0%70' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 97%, draw 3%, San Diego 0%71' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 97%, draw 3%, San Diego 0%72' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 97%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%73' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 97%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%74' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%75' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%76' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%77' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%78' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%79' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 2%, San Diego 0%80' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 98%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%81' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%82' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%83' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%84' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%85' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%86' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%87' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%88' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 99%, draw 1%, San Diego 0%89' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%90' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%90+1' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%90+2' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%90+3' · 3–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%90+4' · 4–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%90+5' · 4–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%90+6' · 4–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%90+7' · 4–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%90+8' · 4–1 · New York Red Bulls 100%, draw 0%, San Diego 0%

Last reading, 90+8': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave New York Red Bulls 40% to win: they did.

  1. 15'New York Red Bulls:Julian Hall 1946 +24* assist Jorge Ruvalcaba 1937 +22*
  2. 20'New York Red Bulls:Devin Padelford 1859 +41* assist Cade Cowell 1926 +19*
  3. 27'New York Red Bulls:Jorge Ruvalcaba 1937 +22* assist Ronald Donkor 1943 +17*
  4. 30'San Diego:Jeppe Tverskov 1942 −17*
  5. 42'New York Red Bulls:Julian Bazan 1710 +21*
  6. 44'San Diego:Anders Dreyer 1969 −41* (penalty missed)
  7. 45'San Diego:Alejandro Alvarado Jr 1637 −8* for Jeppe Tverskov 1942 −17*
  8. 45'San Diego:Cédric Bakambu 1854 −15* for Marcus Ingvartsen 1938 −13*
  9. 55'San Diego:Manu Duah 1976 −18*
  10. 60'San Diego:Cédric Bakambu 1854 −15* assist Anders Dreyer 1969 −41*
  11. 61'San Diego:David Evra Mimbang Nyangono for Gabriel Pirani 1780 −8*
  12. 61'San Diego:Christopher McVey 2053 −15* for Ian Murphy 1920 −11*
  13. 61'New York Red Bulls:Tim Parker 1784 −6* for Justin Che 1820 +6*
  14. 71'New York Red Bulls:Sekou Kone 1599 0* for Ronald Donkor 1943 +17*
  15. 71'New York Red Bulls:Emil Forsberg 1739 −10* for Mohammed Sofo 1802 +9*
  16. 71'New York Red Bulls:Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 1633 0* for Cade Cowell 1926 +19*
  17. 79'San Diego:Amahl Pellegrino 1725 −16* for Elias Achouri 1925 −13*
  18. 81'New York Red Bulls:Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty 1903 −6* for Jorge Ruvalcaba 1937 +22*
  19. 82'New York Red Bulls:Devin Padelford 1859 +41*
  20. 85'San Diego:kieran sargeant 1653 −8*
  21. 88'New York Red Bulls:Matthew Dos Santos 1849 −7* for Devin Padelford 1859 +41*
  22. 90+1'San Diego:Onni Valakari 2029 −1 for Aníbal Godoy 1832 −17*
  23. 90+3'New York Red Bulls:Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting 1633 0* assist Matthew Dos Santos 1849 −7*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-3-3Formations4-3-3
GE. Horvath1928+27*
DD. Nealis1921+28*
DJ. Che1820+6*
DJ. Bazán1710+21*
DD. Padelford1859+41*
MR. Donkor1943+17*
MA. Mehmeti1892+7*
MM. Sofo1802+9*
FJ. Ruvalcaba1937+22*
FJ. Hall1946+24*
FC. Cowell1926+19*
CMichael Bradley1750+41*
GC. dos Santos2036−25*
DO. Verhoeven1873−8*
DM. Duah1976−18*
DI. Murphy1920−11*
DKieran Sargeant1653−8*
MA. Godoy1832−17*
MJ. Tverskov1942−17*
MGabriel Pirani1780−8*
FA. Dreyer1969−41*
FM. Ingvartsen1938−13*
FE. Achouri1925−13*
CMikey Varas1960−26*
Before kick-off: 40% · 28% · 32%(New York Red Bulls · draw · San Diego)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 4–1 had 2%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: New York Red Bulls €2.2M, San Diego €2.7M.
  • Home advantage made New York Red Bulls the favourite: it added 9 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

New York Red Bulls

8th in MLS · 33 pts from 27

  • 30 SepLSt. Louis City 1793
  • 18 SepWNew York City FC 1840
  • 12 SepWColumbus Crew 1809
  • 10 SepLLos Angeles FC 1768
  • 6 SepDSeattle Sounders 1826

San Diego

12th in MLS · 32 pts from 27

  • 27 SepDAustin 1893
  • 14 SepLPhiladelphia Union 1890
  • 10 SepLSan Jose Earthquakes 1971
  • 5 SepLOrlando City SC 1913
  • 30 AugWLos Angeles Galaxy 1929

Season outlook

From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
New York Red Bulls33 /2741.30%0%3%19th
San Diego32 /2741.20%0%1%21st
New York Red Bulls
San Diego

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Major League Soccer

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

R. Donkor
R. Donkor

New York Red Bulls · +1.8 (Average) · Elo 1926

A. Dreyer
A. Dreyer

San Diego · +4.0 (Good) · Elo 2010

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Michael Bradley

Coach DNA: –

Michael Anthony Varas

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

New York Red Bulls: balanced profile (how Michael Bradley plays) · San Diego: possession-based (how Michael Anthony Varas plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.