Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 32
New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Yankee Stadium, New York
New York City FC host Atlanta United FC on Wed 28 Oct 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: New York City FC 41%, draw 29%, Atlanta United FC 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: New York City FC €2.3M, Atlanta United FC €2.4M.
- Home advantage makes New York City FC the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- MLS: B. Embolo is the highest-rated forward (2255).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. New York City FC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: New York City FC 1917 · Atlanta United FC 1965
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
New York City FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.5 (Elite) · Elo 1920
Atlanta United FC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Elite) · Elo 2030
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
New York City FC
11th in MLS · 34 pts from 30
- 17 OctDLos Angeles FC MLS1924
- 14 OctLInter Miami MLS1939
- 10 OctLChicago Fire MLS1964
- 26 SepDAtlanta United FC MLS1918
- 18 SepLNew York Red Bulls MLS1953
Atlanta United FC
14th in MLS · 30 pts from 30
- 17 OctLInter Miami MLS1982
- 14 OctWCF Montreal MLS1920
- 10 OctLFC Cincinnati MLS1944
- 26 SepDNew York City FC MLS1870
- 20 SepWPortland Timbers MLS1908
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 34 /30 | 39.8 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 20th |
| Atlanta United FC | 30 /30 | 36.1 | 0% | 0% | 32% | 28th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
New York City FC: balanced profile (how Pascal Jansen plays) · Atlanta United FC: balanced profile (how Gerardo Daniel Martino plays)