Major League Soccer · Round of 16
New England Revolution vs Philadelphia Union
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Gillette Stadium
New England Revolution host Philadelphia Union on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: New England Revolution 39%, draw 29%, Philadelphia Union 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: New England Revolution €2.1M, Philadelphia Union €3.4M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the MLS Round of 16: 72 points.
- Home advantage makes New England Revolution the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. New England Revolution goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–18%
- 2–28%
- 1–27%
- 1–07%
- 0–16%
- Other scores51%
Team Elo: New England Revolution 1974 · Philadelphia Union 2046
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
New England Revolution · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.3 (Good) · Elo 2054
Philadelphia Union · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 2162
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
New England Revolution
3rd in MLS · 58 pts from 34
- 7 NovLOrlando City SC MLS2001
- 2 NovLInter Miami MLS2044
- 28 OctWNew York Red Bulls MLS1995
- 24 OctWPhiladelphia Union MLS1957
- 17 OctWChicago Fire MLS1980
Philadelphia Union
6th in MLS · 50 pts from 34
- 7 NovWToronto FC MLS2125
- 31 OctLFC Cincinnati MLS2056
- 29 OctDNashville SC MLS2003
- 24 OctLNew England Revolution MLS2148
- 17 OctDCharlotte MLS2141
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Revolution | 58 /34 | 60.5 | 0% | 34% | 0% | 5th |
| Philadelphia Union | 50 /34 | 53.0 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
New England Revolution: balanced profile (how Marko Mićović plays) · Philadelphia Union: direct · high-pressing (how Ryan Richter plays)