Pro League · Regular Season - 11
NEOM vs Abha
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · King Khalid Sports City, Tabuk
NEOM host Abha on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: NEOM 64%, draw 22%, Abha 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: NEOM €2.2M, Abha €666K.
- Abha's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.7 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. NEOM goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–08%
- 3–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: NEOM 1989 · Abha 1710
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
NEOM · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.4 (Elite) · Elo 2238
Abha · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1780
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
NEOM
5th in Saudi Pro League · 16 pts from 9
- 17 OctLAl-Ettifaq Saudi Pro League1998
- 10 OctDAl-Hazm Saudi Pro League2042
- 13 SepWAl-Fateh Saudi Pro League1993
- 7 SepWAl-Hilal Saudi FC Saudi Pro League1920
- 3 SepWAl Khaleej Saihat Saudi Pro League1904
Abha
18th in Saudi Pro League · 2 pts from 8
- 16 OctLAl-Qadisiyah FC Saudi Pro League1660
- 13 SepDAl Diriyah Saudi Pro League1680
- 9 SepLAl-Nassr Saudi Pro League1686
- 4 SepLAl-Ettifaq Saudi Pro League1656
- 28 AugLAl-Fayha Saudi Pro League1679
Season outlook
From the Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEOM | 16 /9 | 54.8 | 0% | 6% | 0% | 6th |
| Abha | 2 /8 | 25.8 | 0% | 0% | 65% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
NEOM: balanced profile (how Christophe Galtier plays) · Abha: direct · low-volume (how Damir Burić plays)