Liga MX · Apertura - 16
Necaxa vs Club Tijuana
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
Necaxa host Club Tijuana on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (Liga MX); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Necaxa 41%, draw 29%, Club Tijuana 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Necaxa €2.1M, Club Tijuana €2.0M.
- Home advantage makes Necaxa the favourite here: it adds 10 points to their win chance; Liga MX has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Necaxa goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Necaxa 1826 · Club Tijuana 1881
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Necaxa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1896
Club Tijuana · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 1915
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Necaxa
17th in Liga MX · 9 pts from 13
- 21 OctLGuadalajara Chivas Liga MX1776
- 17 OctLAtlas Liga MX1801
- 11 OctDCF Pachuca Liga MX1797
- 28 SepLClub America Liga MX1808
- 19 SepLAtletico San Luis Liga MX1834
Club Tijuana
10th in Liga MX · 17 pts from 12
- 22 OctDToluca Liga MX1803
- 17 OctDPuebla Liga MX1902
- 10 OctDFC Juarez Liga MX1913
- 26 SepLAtlas Liga MX1876
- 21 SepDCF Pachuca Liga MX1913
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 9 /13 | 14.3 | 0% | 0% | 87% | 17th |
| Club Tijuana | 17 /12 | 23.4 | 0% | 3% | 1% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Necaxa: direct (how M. Varini plays) · Club Tijuana: balanced profile (how S. Abreu plays)