Liga MX · Apertura - 12
Necaxa 0–2 Atlas
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 01:00 UTC · Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
NecaxaTeam 1839AtlasTeam 1898- Ryan Mmaee 5'
- Manuel Capasso 90'
We gave Necaxa 40% to win: Atlas won.
- 5'Ryan Mmaee – assist Florián Monzón –Atlas:Ryan Mmaee – assist Florián Monzón –
- Javier Ruiz – for Matias Espindola –64'Necaxa:Javier Ruiz – for Matias Espindola –
- 67'Milton Valenzuela –Atlas:Milton Valenzuela –
- 70'Jorge Rodríguez – for Ryan Mmaee –Atlas:Jorge Rodríguez – for Ryan Mmaee –
- Juan Valencia – for Pedro Pedraza –74'Necaxa:Juan Valencia – for Pedro Pedraza –
- Leonardo Abimael Becerra Ramos for Emilio Martínez –74'Necaxa:Leonardo Abimael Becerra Ramos for Emilio Martínez –
- 76'Edgar Zaldívar – for Luís André Leite Esteves –Atlas:Edgar Zaldívar – for Luís André Leite Esteves –
- 76'Manuel Capasso – for Kevin Zenon –Atlas:Manuel Capasso – for Kevin Zenon –
- 77'Adonis Frías –Atlas:Adonis Frías –
- Miguel Pedroza – for Carlos Vargas –81'Necaxa:Miguel Pedroza – for Carlos Vargas –
- Rogelio Cortéz – for Owen González –82'Necaxa:Rogelio Cortéz – for Owen González –
- 85'Gaddi Aguirre – for Jorge Sánchez –Atlas:Gaddi Aguirre – for Jorge Sánchez –
- 90'Manuel Capasso –Atlas:Manuel Capasso –
- Diego Ochoa –90+3'Necaxa:Diego Ochoa –
Before kick-off (provisional): 40% · 29% · 31%(Necaxa · draw · Atlas)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–2 had 5%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Necaxa €1.7M, Atlas €2.5M.
- Home advantage made Necaxa the favourite: it added 10 points to their win chance; Liga MX has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Liga MX): Necaxa ranked #2 of 18, Atlas #16.
- Atlas' expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Necaxa
17th in Liga MX · 9 pts from 11
- 11 OctDCF Pachuca Liga MX1797
- 28 SepLClub America Liga MX1808
- 19 SepLAtletico San Luis Liga MX1834
- 12 SepLPuebla Liga MX1830
- 6 SepDTigres UANL Liga MX1828
Atlas
6th in Liga MX · 18 pts from 11
- 11 OctDGuadalajara Chivas Liga MX1921
- 26 SepWClub Tijuana Liga MX1880
- 19 SepDU.N.A.M. - Pumas Liga MX1891
- 12 SepLToluca Liga MX1878
- 6 SepDAtlante FC Liga MX1902
Season outlook
From the Liga MX simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 9 /11 | 16.7 | 0% | 0% | 37% | 16th |
| Atlas | 18 /11 | 27.1 | 3% | 31% | <1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Necaxa · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.8 (Good) · Elo 1690
Atlas · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1869
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Necaxa: direct (how Martín Varini Di Zioli plays) · Atlas: direct (how Hernán Jorge Crespo plays)