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Serie B · Regular Season - 33

Nautico Recife 0–2 Vila Nova

Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Estadio dos Aflitos, Recife

Nautico Recife crestNautico RecifeTeam 1473
0–2
Full time
HT 0–2
Vila Nova crestVila NovaTeam 1657

Match story

Nautico Recife · draw · Vila Nova

Before kick-off: 31% · 31% · 38%

Live chances: Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100% at 90+6'1' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 31%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 38%2' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 31%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 38%3' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 31%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 38%4' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 31%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 38%5' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 31%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 37%7' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 37%8' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 32%, Vila Nova 37%9' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 33%, Vila Nova 37%10' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 33%, Vila Nova 37%11' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 33%, Vila Nova 37%12' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 33%, Vila Nova 37%13' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 33%, Vila Nova 37%14' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 33%, Vila Nova 36%15' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 34%, Vila Nova 36%16' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 34%, Vila Nova 36%17' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 34%, Vila Nova 36%18' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 34%, Vila Nova 36%19' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 34%, Vila Nova 36%20' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 35%, Vila Nova 36%21' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 30%, draw 35%, Vila Nova 36%22' · 0–0 · Nautico Recife 29%, draw 35%, Vila Nova 35%23' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 12%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 64%24' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 12%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 64%25' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 12%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 64%26' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 12%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 64%27' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 12%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 65%28' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 12%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 65%29' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 11%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 65%30' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 11%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 65%31' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 11%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 65%32' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 11%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 65%33' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 11%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 65%34' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 11%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 66%35' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 11%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 66%36' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 10%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 66%37' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 10%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 66%38' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 10%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 66%39' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 10%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 66%40' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 10%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 67%41' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 10%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 67%42' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 9%, draw 24%, Vila Nova 67%43' · 0–1 · Nautico Recife 9%, draw 23%, Vila Nova 67%44' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 92%45' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 93%45+1' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 93%45+2' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 93%45+3' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 93%45+4' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 93%45+5' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 93%45+6' · 1–2 · Nautico Recife 8%, draw 23%, Vila Nova 68%45+7' · 1–2 · Nautico Recife 8%, draw 23%, Vila Nova 68%HT · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 93%47' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 93%48' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 6%, Vila Nova 93%49' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 5%, Vila Nova 94%50' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 5%, Vila Nova 94%51' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 5%, Vila Nova 94%52' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 5%, Vila Nova 94%53' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 5%, Vila Nova 94%54' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 5%, Vila Nova 94%55' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 5%, Vila Nova 95%56' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 4%, Vila Nova 95%57' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 4%, Vila Nova 95%58' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 4%, Vila Nova 95%59' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 4%, Vila Nova 95%60' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 4%, Vila Nova 96%61' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 1%, draw 4%, Vila Nova 96%62' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 4%, Vila Nova 96%63' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 3%, Vila Nova 96%64' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 3%, Vila Nova 96%65' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 3%, Vila Nova 96%66' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 3%, Vila Nova 97%67' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 3%, Vila Nova 97%68' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 3%, Vila Nova 97%69' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 3%, Vila Nova 97%70' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 3%, Vila Nova 97%71' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 2%, Vila Nova 97%72' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 2%, Vila Nova 98%73' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 2%, Vila Nova 98%74' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 2%, Vila Nova 98%75' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 2%, Vila Nova 98%76' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 2%, Vila Nova 98%77' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 2%, Vila Nova 98%78' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 98%79' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 99%80' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 99%81' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 99%82' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 99%83' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 99%84' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 99%85' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 99%86' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 99%87' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 1%, Vila Nova 99%88' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100%89' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100%90' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100%90+1' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100%90+2' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100%90+3' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100%90+4' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100%90+5' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100%90+6' · 0–2 · Nautico Recife 0%, draw 0%, Vila Nova 100%

Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 0% · 100%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Vila Nova 38% to win: they did.

  1. 22'Vila Nova:Everton Galdino 1799 +35
  2. 37'Vila Nova:João Pedro Vieira 1766 +12
  3. 38'Nautico Recife:Vinicius 1605 −20
  4. 43'Vila Nova:Janderson 1823 +36
  5. 45'Nautico Recife:Luiz Felipe 1587 −7 for Samuel 1357 0
  6. 45'Vila Nova:Higor Meritão 1556 +14 for Eduardo Dos Santos 1606 +16
  7. 54'Nautico Recife:Igor Fernandes 1578 −18
  8. 57'Nautico Recife:Ryan Santos 1609 −5 for Gustavo Henrique 1515 −10*
  9. 57'Nautico Recife:Victor Andrade 1577 −22* for Kauan Almeida da Costa 1386 0
  10. 60'Vila Nova:Higor Meritão 1556 +14
  11. 66'Nautico Recife:Reginaldo 1552 −7 for Luan Sales 1409 −6
  12. 69'Vila Nova:Douglas Mendes 1715 +17
  13. 70'Vila Nova:Tiago Pagnussat 1655 −3 for Douglas Mendes 1715 +17
  14. 70'Vila Nova:Willian Maranhão 1619 −4* for João Pedro Vieira 1766 +12
  15. 72'Vila Nova:Willian Maranhão 1619 −4*
  16. 75'Nautico Recife:Luiz Cláudio 1071 −8* for Paulo Sérgio 1366 −10
  17. 80'Vila Nova:Emerson 1331 +6 for Everton Galdino 1799 +35
  18. 90+1'Vila Nova:Nathan Camargo 1668 −7* for Marquinhos Gabriel 1698 +14

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-4-2Formations4-2-3-1
GMuriel1520−13
DArnaldo1409−6
DLéo Índio1554−11
DGustavo Henrique1515−10*
DIgor Fernandes1578−18
MPaulo Sérgio1366−10
MWenderson1615−17
MSamuel13570
MVinícius1605−20
FKaua Almeida da Costa13860
FJean Carlos1498−9
CBruno Pivetti1571−21
GHelton Leite1765+13
DHayner1758+15
DDouglas Mendes1715+17
DJonathan Costa1761+6*
DWillian Formiga1607+29
MJoão Vieira1766+12
MDudu1606+16
MEverton Galdino1799+35
MMarquinhos Gabriel1698+14
MJanderson1823+36
FDellatorre1593+19*
CGuto Ferreira1757+35
Before kick-off: 31% · 31% · 38%(Nautico Recife · draw · Vila Nova)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (15%); the result 0–2 had 8%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Nautico Recife €190K, Vila Nova €434K.
  • Vila Nova were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Nautico Recife

13th in Serie B · 42 pts from 32

  • 8 OctLNovorizontino 1563
  • 3 OctDFortaleza EC 1560
  • 26 SepWSport Recife 1536
  • 22 SepLCuiaba 1535
  • 15 SepDOperario-PR 1532

Vila Nova

2nd in Serie B · 58 pts from 32

  • 7 OctDCuiaba 1721
  • 3 OctWBotafogo SP 1710
  • 25 SepWLondrina 1712
  • 18 SepWAmerica Mineiro 1705
  • 15 SepDAvai 1689

Season outlook

From the Serie B simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Nautico Recife42 /3249.10%0%0%15th
Vila Nova58 /3266.015%78%0%3rd
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie B

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Wenderson
Wenderson

Nautico Recife · +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1632

Marquinhos Gabriel
Marquinhos Gabriel

Vila Nova · +3.5 (Good) · Elo 1684

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Bruno Marques Fernandes Pivetti

Coach DNA: low-volume · possession-based

Augusto Sérgio Ferreira

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Nautico Recife: balanced profile (how Bruno Marques Fernandes Pivetti plays) · Vila Nova: balanced profile (how Augusto Sérgio Ferreira plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.