Serie B · Regular Season - 32
Nautico Recife 0–2 Novorizontino
Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estadio dos Aflitos, Recife
Nautico RecifeTeam 1531NovorizontinoTeam 1752We gave Novorizontino 42% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 29% · 29% · 42%(Nautico Recife · draw · Novorizontino)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–2 had 8%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Nautico Recife €254K, Novorizontino €582K.
- Serie B: Léo Naldi was the highest-rated midfielder (1887).
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nautico Recife
13th in Serie B · 42 pts from 31
- 3 OctDFortaleza EC Brazil Serie B1560
- 26 SepWSport Recife Brazil Serie B1536
- 22 SepLCuiaba Brazil Serie B1535
- 15 SepDOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1532
- 9 SepLAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1537
Novorizontino
4th in Serie B · 54 pts from 31
- 2 OctWGoias Brazil Serie B1764
- 25 SepDSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1762
- 18 SepLCeara Brazil Serie B1777
- 13 SepDCuiaba Brazil Serie B1803
- 9 SepWBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1781
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 42 /31 | 50.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14th |
| Novorizontino | 54 /31 | 65.2 | 16% | 73% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nautico Recife · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Good) · Elo 1648
Novorizontino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1762
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-volume · possession-based
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nautico Recife: balanced profile (how Bruno Marques Fernandes Pivetti plays) · Novorizontino: balanced profile (how Enderson Alves Moreira plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.