Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 29
Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Geodis Park, Nashville
Nashville SCTeam 2095Sporting Kansas CityTeam 1676Match story
Nashville SC · draw · Sporting Kansas CityBefore kick-off: 78% · 14% · 8%
Last reading, 90+6': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Hany Mukhtar 10'
- Sam Surridge 17'
- Andy Najar 29'
- Warren Madrigal 90+5' (pen)
We gave Nashville SC 78% to win: they did.
- Hany Mukhtar 2067 +9 assist Andy Najar 2006 +1010'Nashville SC:Hany Mukhtar 2067 +9 assist Andy Najar 2006 +10
- Sam Surridge 2062 +14 assist Hany Mukhtar 2067 +917'Nashville SC:Sam Surridge 2062 +14 assist Hany Mukhtar 2067 +9
- Andy Najar 2006 +10 assist Cristian Espinoza 2044 +929'Nashville SC:Andy Najar 2006 +10 assist Cristian Espinoza 2044 +9
- 45'Jacob Bartlett 1723 0 for Zorhan Bassong 1709 −1Sporting Kansas City:Jacob Bartlett 1723 0 for Zorhan Bassong 1709 −1
- 45'Calvin Harris 1859 −3 for André Luiz 1840 −3Sporting Kansas City:Calvin Harris 1859 −3 for André Luiz 1840 −3
- 53'Taylor Calheira 1745 0 for Seymour Garfield-Reid 1497 0Sporting Kansas City:Taylor Calheira 1745 0 for Seymour Garfield-Reid 1497 0
- Daniel Lovitz 1866 −4 for Andy Najar 2006 +1068'Nashville SC:Daniel Lovitz 1866 −4 for Andy Najar 2006 +10
- Shakur Mohammed 1596 +5 for Cristian Espinoza 2044 +968'Nashville SC:Shakur Mohammed 1596 +5 for Cristian Espinoza 2044 +9
- 69'Jacob Davis 1779 −8* for Ian James 1630 0Sporting Kansas City:Jacob Davis 1779 −8* for Ian James 1630 0
- Bryan Acosta 1715 −2 for matthew corcoran 2002 +676'Nashville SC:Bryan Acosta 1715 −2 for matthew corcoran 2002 +6
- Warren Madrigal 1904 −4* for Hany Mukhtar 2067 +976'Nashville SC:Warren Madrigal 1904 −4* for Hany Mukhtar 2067 +9
- 81'Emir Karic 1918 −2 for Jayden Reid 1671 −8*Sporting Kansas City:Emir Karic 1918 −2 for Jayden Reid 1671 −8*
- Alex Muyl 1891 −9* for Sam Surridge 2062 +1483'Nashville SC:Alex Muyl 1891 −9* for Sam Surridge 2062 +14
- Warren Madrigal 1904 −4* (pen.)90+5'Nashville SC:Warren Madrigal 1904 −4* (pen.)
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 78% · 14% · 8%(Nashville SC · draw · Sporting Kansas City)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (9%); the result 4–0 had 7%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Nashville SC €2.6M, Sporting Kansas City €675K.
- Sporting Kansas City were without 1 expected starter: L. Johnsen (1857).
- Largest team-Elo gap of MLS matchday 29: 247 points.
- Draw chance was 21%, below the MLS average of 27% this round.
- Nashville SC's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nashville SC
1st in MLS · 63 pts from 28
- 11 OctWAustin MLS2026
- 27 SepWToronto FC MLS1996
- 20 SepWChicago Fire MLS1994
- 12 SepDInter Miami MLS1985
- 9 SepLToronto FC MLS1994
Sporting Kansas City
15th in MLS · 22 pts from 28
- 11 OctDPortland Timbers MLS1768
- 2 OctLSeattle Sounders MLS1792
- 27 SepWHouston Dynamo MLS1737
- 20 SepLPhiladelphia Union MLS1758
- 13 SepWLos Angeles FC MLS1703
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 63 /28 | 73.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Sporting Kansas City | 22 /28 | 28.7 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 30th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nashville SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2067
Sporting Kansas City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1843
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nashville SC: balanced profile (how Brian Joseph Callaghan II plays) · Sporting Kansas City: balanced profile (how Raphael Wicky plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.