Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 32
Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Geodis Park, Nashville
Nashville SC host Philadelphia Union on Thu 29 Oct 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nashville SC 42%, draw 29%, Philadelphia Union 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nashville SC €2.7M, Philadelphia Union €3.3M.
- Home advantage makes Nashville SC the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Nashville SC's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.9 over 180 days.
- Nashville SC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
- Philadelphia Union are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nashville SC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Nashville SC 2031 · Philadelphia Union 2061
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nashville SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2078
Philadelphia Union · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 2121
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nashville SC
1st in MLS · 67 pts from 30
- 18 OctDSan Jose Earthquakes MLS1994
- 15 OctWSporting Kansas City MLS2045
- 11 OctWAustin MLS2026
- 27 SepWToronto FC MLS1996
- 20 SepWChicago Fire MLS1994
Philadelphia Union
6th in MLS · 46 pts from 30
- 17 OctDCharlotte MLS2144
- 15 OctWChicago Fire MLS2097
- 10 OctWReal Salt Lake MLS2112
- 26 SepWOrlando City SC MLS2017
- 20 SepWSporting Kansas City MLS2075
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 67 /30 | 73.6 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| Philadelphia Union | 46 /30 | 52.5 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nashville SC: balanced profile (how Brian Joseph Callaghan II plays) · Philadelphia Union: direct · high-pressing (how Ryan Richter plays)