Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 33
Nashville SC vs New York Red Bulls
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 21:30 UTC · Geodis Park, Nashville
Nashville SC host New York Red Bulls on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nashville SC 60%, draw 23%, New York Red Bulls 16%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nashville SC €2.7M, New York Red Bulls €2.0M.
- Nashville SC's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.9 over 180 days.
- Nashville SC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nashville SC goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Nashville SC 2031 · New York Red Bulls 1842
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nashville SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.1 (Elite) · Elo 2078
New York Red Bulls · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.2 (Good) · Elo 1710
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nashville SC
1st in MLS · 67 pts from 30
- 18 OctDSan Jose Earthquakes MLS1994
- 15 OctWSporting Kansas City MLS2045
- 11 OctWAustin MLS2026
- 27 SepWToronto FC MLS1996
- 20 SepWChicago Fire MLS1994
New York Red Bulls
8th in MLS · 36 pts from 30
- 17 OctLToronto FC MLS1875
- 14 OctLDC United MLS1881
- 10 OctWSan Diego MLS1862
- 30 SepLSt. Louis City MLS1793
- 18 SepWNew York City FC MLS1840
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC | 67 /30 | 73.6 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
| New York Red Bulls | 36 /30 | 39.9 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 22nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nashville SC: balanced profile (how Brian Joseph Callaghan II plays) · New York Red Bulls: balanced profile (how Michael Bradley plays)