Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 8
Nancy 1–0 Guingamp
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Stade Marcel-Picot, Nancy
NancyTeam 1606GuingampTeam 1488We gave Nancy 51% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 51% · 27% · 22%(Nancy · draw · Guingamp)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–0 had 10%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Nancy €440K, Guingamp €331K.
- Style contrast in possession (Ligue 2): Nancy ranked #15 of 18, Guingamp #3.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nancy
6th in Ligue 2 · 10 pts from 7
- 18 SepWRodez France Ligue 21587
- 11 SepLReims France Ligue 21531
- 7 SepLNantes France Ligue 21644
- 28 AugWDunkerque France Ligue 21601
- 21 AugWPAU France Ligue 21566
Guingamp
11th in Ligue 2 · 8 pts from 7
- 19 SepLRED Star FC 93 France Ligue 21546
- 12 SepWAnnecy France Ligue 21475
- 5 SepDReims France Ligue 21463
- 29 AugDNantes France Ligue 21439
- 21 AugLSochaux France Ligue 21509
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy | 10 /7 | 43.9 | <1% | 5% | 8% | 10th |
| Guingamp | 8 /7 | 39.5 | 0% | 1% | 25% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nancy · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.4 (Good) · Elo 1796
Guingamp · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1554
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nancy: direct (how Oswald Tanchot plays) · Guingamp: balanced profile (how Sylvain Ripoll plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.