Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 9
Nacional vs SC Braga
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC
Nacional host SC Braga on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Primeira Liga); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nacional 17%, draw 24%, SC Braga 59%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nacional €562K, SC Braga €5.1M.
- Style contrast in possession (Primeira Liga): Nacional rank #18 of 18, SC Braga #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nacional goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–37%
- 1–36%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: Nacional 1628 · SC Braga 1997
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1637
SC Braga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 2096
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nacional
16th in Primeira Liga · 4 pts from 8
- 11 OctLRio Ave Primeira Liga1542
- 19 SepLFamalicao Primeira Liga1591
- 12 SepLAlverca Primeira Liga1615
- 5 SepLSporting CP Primeira Liga1635
- 30 AugLEstrela Primeira Liga1670
SC Braga
9th in Primeira Liga · 11 pts from 7
- 15 OctLFC Copenhagen UEFA Conference League1977
- 9 OctLSporting CP Primeira Liga1964
- 20 SepDSanta Clara Primeira Liga1982
- 14 SepWEstoril Primeira Liga2000
- 10 SepLEstrela Primeira Liga2040
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 4 /8 | 28.6 | 0% | 0% | 74% | 18th |
| SC Braga | 11 /7 | 58.6 | 0% | 78% | 0% | 4th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nacional: direct (how Alexandre Miguel Crispim dos Santos plays) · SC Braga: possession-based (how Carlos Vicens plays)