Primera División · Apertura - 23
Nacional Potosí vs Guabirá
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Nacional Potosí host Guabirá on Mon 26 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nacional Potosí 40%, draw 29%, Guabirá 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nacional Potosí €200K, Guabirá €186K.
- Home advantage makes Nacional Potosí the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Guabirá's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.3 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nacional Potosí goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Nacional Potosí 1399 · Guabirá 1410
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nacional Potosí · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Good) · Elo 1436
Guabirá · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1450
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nacional Potosí
9th in Primera División · 28 pts from 22
- 18 OctLBolívar Bolivia Primera Division1399
- 11 OctDAurora Bolivia Primera Division1401
- 16 SepLAlways Ready Bolivia Primera Division1432
- 12 SepWGualberto Villarroel SJ Bolivia Primera Division1396
- 7 SepWBlooming Bolivia Primera Division1358
Guabirá
7th in Primera División · 30 pts from 22
- 18 OctDOriente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division1407
- 12 OctLGualberto Villarroel SJ Bolivia Primera Division1404
- 16 SepWAurora Bolivia Primera Division1379
- 13 SepLAlways Ready Bolivia Primera Division1391
- 5 SepDReal Potosí Bolivia Primera Division1411
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Potosí | 28 /22 | 36.1 | 0% | 1% | <1% | 8th |
| Guabirá | 30 /22 | 38.3 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nacional Potosí: balanced profile (how Eduardo Andrés Villegas Camara plays) · Guabirá: direct (how Leonardo Eguez plays)