Primera División · Apertura - 22
Nacional Potosí 0–1 Bolívar
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte, Potosi
Nacional PotosíTeam 1412BolívarTeam 1734- dorny romero 63'
We gave Bolívar 56% to win: they did.
- Tommy Tobar – for Wilson Álvarez –45'Nacional Potosí:Tommy Tobar – for Wilson Álvarez –
- 45'Luiz Fernando Paz Vargas – for Jesus Manuel Sagredo –Bolívar:Luiz Fernando Paz Vargas – for Jesus Manuel Sagredo –
- 45+2'Jesus Manuel Sagredo –Bolívar:Jesus Manuel Sagredo –
- Oscar Baldomar –55'Nacional Potosí:Oscar Baldomar –
- 63'dorny romero – assist Carlos Melgar –Bolívar:dorny romero – assist Carlos Melgar –
- C. Abastoflor – for Schneider Peña Vaca –67'Nacional Potosí:C. Abastoflor – for Schneider Peña Vaca –
- 67'E. Rivero – for José Sagredo –Bolívar:E. Rivero – for José Sagredo –
- 71'Jhon velasquez –Bolívar:Jhon velasquez –
- Maicon Solis – for Maximiliano Núñez –75'Nacional Potosí:Maicon Solis – for Maximiliano Núñez –
- D. Hoyos – for P. Azogue –75'Nacional Potosí:D. Hoyos – for P. Azogue –
- 77'Erwin Mario Saavedra – for Carlos Melgar –Bolívar:Erwin Mario Saavedra – for Carlos Melgar –
- 77'Damian Batallini – for Jhon velasquez –Bolívar:Damian Batallini – for Jhon velasquez –
- juan orellana – for Oscar Baldomar –84'Nacional Potosí:juan orellana – for Oscar Baldomar –
- 90'Ervin vaca – for Robson Matheus –Bolívar:Ervin vaca – for Robson Matheus –
- 90+5'Carlos Lampe –Bolívar:Carlos Lampe –
- Tommy Tobar – (penalty missed)90+6'Nacional Potosí:Tommy Tobar – (penalty missed)
- 90+6'Santiago Echeverria –Bolívar:Santiago Echeverria –
- 90+6'Dairon Asprilla –Bolívar:Dairon Asprilla –
Before kick-off (provisional): 19% · 25% · 56%(Nacional Potosí · draw · Bolívar)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 0–1 had 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nacional Potosí €207K, Bolívar €473K.
- Primera División: X. Arreaga was the highest-rated defender (1798).
- Bolívar's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.5 over 180 days.
- Bolívar had won their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nacional Potosí
9th in Primera División · 28 pts from 21
- 11 OctDAurora Bolivia Primera Division1401
- 16 SepLAlways Ready Bolivia Primera Division1432
- 12 SepWGualberto Villarroel SJ Bolivia Primera Division1396
- 7 SepWBlooming Bolivia Primera Division1358
- 25 AugLUniversitario de Vinto Bolivia Primera Division1363
Bolívar
2nd in Primera División · 48 pts from 21
- 11 OctWBlooming Bolivia Primera Division1720
- 18 SepWGualberto Villarroel SJ Bolivia Primera Division1722
- 14 SepWReal Tomayapo Bolivia Primera Division1716
- 6 SepWIndependiente Petrolero Bolivia Primera Division1704
- 28 AugWABB Bolivia Primera Division1697
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Potosí | 28 /21 | 37.2 | 0% | 1% | <1% | 8th |
| Bolívar | 48 /21 | 61.9 | 56% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nacional Potosí · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Good) · Elo 1438
Bolívar · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Elite) · Elo 1783
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nacional Potosí: balanced profile (how Eduardo Andrés Villegas Camara plays) · Bolívar: possession-based · creative (how Alejandro Restrepo Mazo plays)