Division Profesional - Clausura · Clausura - 14
Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo Recoleta
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 22:20 UTC · Estádio Arsenio Erico, Asunción
Nacional AsuncionTeam 1536Deportivo RecoletaTeam 1393- Leandro Meza 56'
We gave Nacional Asuncion 56% to win: they did.
- 41'Wilfrido Baez –Deportivo Recoleta:Wilfrido Baez –
- 42'Pedro David Ríos Galeano –Deportivo Recoleta:Pedro David Ríos Galeano –
- Hugo Adrián Benítez – (penalty missed)43'Nacional Asuncion:Hugo Adrián Benítez – (penalty missed)
- 45'José Espínola – for Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán –Deportivo Recoleta:José Espínola – for Ronal Iván Domínguez Colmán –
- 52'R. Ortiz – for Renzo José Martino CampuzanoDeportivo Recoleta:R. Ortiz – for Renzo José Martino Campuzano
- 53'Manuel Shupp Astigarraga – for Wilfrido Baez –Deportivo Recoleta:Manuel Shupp Astigarraga – for Wilfrido Baez –
- Leandro Meza – assist Carlos Espinola –56'Nacional Asuncion:Leandro Meza – assist Carlos Espinola –
- 67'Juan Franco –Deportivo Recoleta:Juan Franco –
- Gaston Benitez – for Sebastian Vargas –68'Nacional Asuncion:Gaston Benitez – for Sebastian Vargas –
- Jordan·Santacruz – for Leandro Meza –76'Nacional Asuncion:Jordan·Santacruz – for Leandro Meza –
- Ignacio Bailone – for Hugo Adrián Benítez –76'Nacional Asuncion:Ignacio Bailone – for Hugo Adrián Benítez –
- 76'Thiago Vidal – for Aldo Walmor González Román –Deportivo Recoleta:Thiago Vidal – for Aldo Walmor González Román –
- 79'Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguez – for R. Ortiz –Deportivo Recoleta:Kevin Daniel Parzajuk Rodríguez – for R. Ortiz –
- Hugo Valdez – for Josué Colmán –85'Nacional Asuncion:Hugo Valdez – for Josué Colmán –
- Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez – for Fabrizio Jara –85'Nacional Asuncion:Roberto Carlos Ramírez Antúnez – for Fabrizio Jara –
- Rodrigo Melgarejo –90+1'Nacional Asuncion:Rodrigo Melgarejo –
Before kick-off (provisional): 56% · 25% · 19%(Nacional Asuncion · draw · Deportivo Recoleta)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–0 had 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nacional Asuncion €360K, Deportivo Recoleta €243K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Division Profesional - Clausura): Nacional Asuncion ranked #11 of 12, Deportivo Recoleta #2.
- Deportivo Recoleta's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nacional Asuncion
5th in Division Profesional - Clausura · 23 pts from 13
- 6 OctDOlimpia Paraguay Division Profesional1534
- 25 SepDSportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional1567
- 18 SepW2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional1529
- 13 SepWRubio NU Paraguay Division Profesional1569
- 7 SepLCerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional1557
Deportivo Recoleta
11th in Division Profesional - Clausura · 8 pts from 13
- 5 OctLLibertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional1398
- 28 SepDClub Sp. San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional1373
- 20 SepLSportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional1383
- 12 SepLSportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional1409
- 7 SepLClub Guarani Paraguay Division Profesional1461
Season outlook
From the Division Profesional - Clausura simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Asuncion | 23 /13 | 36.0 | 6% | 54% | 0% | 5th |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 8 /13 | 17.3 | 0% | 0% | 90% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Full table and finishing odds: Division Profesional - Clausura
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nacional Asuncion · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1779
Deportivo Recoleta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1479
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nacional Asuncion: balanced profile (how Víctor Eduardo Ceferino Bernay plays) · Deportivo Recoleta: balanced profile (how Jorge Osmar González Frutos plays)