Division Profesional - Clausura · Clausura - 20
Nacional Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
Wed 18 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Arsenio Erico
Nacional Asuncion host Cerro Porteno on Wed 18 Nov 2026 (Division Profesional - Clausura); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Nacional Asuncion 36%, draw 29%, Cerro Porteno 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Nacional Asuncion €387K, Cerro Porteno €653K.
- Home advantage makes Nacional Asuncion the favourite here: it adds 8 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Division Profesional - Clausura): Nacional Asuncion rank #11 of 13, Cerro Porteno #4.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Nacional Asuncion goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Nacional Asuncion 1625 · Cerro Porteno 1715
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Nacional Asuncion · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.8 (Good) · Elo 1845
Cerro Porteno · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1629
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Nacional Asuncion
2nd in Division Profesional - Clausura · 32 pts from 17
- 31 OctWSportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional1607
- 24 OctLSportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional1635
- 17 OctWClub Guarani Paraguay Division Profesional1611
- 12 OctWDeportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional1583
- 6 OctDOlimpia Paraguay Division Profesional1537
Cerro Porteno
7th in Division Profesional - Clausura · 24 pts from 17
- 1 NovLOlimpia Paraguay Division Profesional1725
- 25 OctWClub Sp. San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional1697
- 18 OctDSportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional1700
- 10 OctWSportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional1684
- 5 OctL2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional1728
Season outlook
From the Division Profesional - Clausura simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional Asuncion | 32 /17 | 40.0 | 7% | 93% | 0% | 2nd |
| Cerro Porteno | 24 /17 | 32.5 | 0% | 11% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 12th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Full table and finishing odds: Division Profesional - Clausura
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Nacional Asuncion: balanced profile (how V. Bernay plays) · Cerro Porteno: balanced profile (how G. Costas plays)