Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10
NAC Breda 1–0 MVV
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
NAC BredaTeam 1642MVVTeam 1535We gave NAC Breda 50% to win: they did.
Before kick-off (provisional): 50% · 27% · 23%(NAC Breda · draw · MVV)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–0 had 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: NAC Breda €594K, MVV €296K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
NAC Breda
9th in Eerste Divisie · 14 pts from 9
- 3 OctDVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1711
- 26 SepWFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1690
- 20 SepWDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1668
- 11 SepLJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1587
- 4 SepLWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1653
MVV
5th in Eerste Divisie · 16 pts from 9
- 3 OctLFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1565
- 26 SepWHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1537
- 18 SepLWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1570
- 11 SepLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1532
- 6 SepDRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1533
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | 14 /9 | 56.1 | 3% | 24% | 2% | 5th |
| MVV | 16 /9 | 50.8 | 1% | 7% | 9% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
NAC Breda · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1702
MVV · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1621
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
NAC Breda: balanced profile (how Rick Kruys plays) · MVV: balanced profile (how Andries Jonker plays)