Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 12
NAC Breda vs Heracles
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
NAC Breda host Heracles on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: NAC Breda 39%, draw 29%, Heracles 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: NAC Breda €683K, Heracles €488K.
- Home advantage makes NAC Breda the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- NAC Breda are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. NAC Breda goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: NAC Breda 1671 · Heracles 1693
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
NAC Breda · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.4 (Good) · Elo 1725
Heracles · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1706
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
NAC Breda
5th in Eerste Divisie · 20 pts from 11
- 16 OctWHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1718
- 9 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1677
- 3 OctDVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1711
- 26 SepWFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1690
- 20 SepWDe Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie1668
Heracles
1st in Eerste Divisie · 28 pts from 11
- 18 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1626
- 9 OctWWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1664
- 2 OctDHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1681
- 26 SepWVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1650
- 18 SepLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1654
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | 20 /11 | 60.0 | 4% | 37% | <1% | 4th |
| Heracles | 28 /11 | 70.2 | 43% | 90% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
NAC Breda: balanced profile (how Rick Kruys plays) · Heracles: direct (how Vincent Heilmann plays)