Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 15
MVV vs Vitesse
Sun 15 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC · De Geusselt, Maastricht
MVV host Vitesse on Sun 15 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: MVV 32%, draw 29%, Vitesse 39%.
- Average value of the expected XI: MVV €270K, Vitesse €346K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. MVV goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 0–09%
- 1–29%
- 1–08%
- 2–18%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: MVV 1526 · Vitesse 1640
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
MVV · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1603
Vitesse · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1736
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
MVV
9th in Eerste Divisie · 17 pts from 12
- 28 OctLExcelsior Netherlands KNVB Beker1548
- 23 OctDDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1561
- 18 OctLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1585
- 9 OctLNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1557
- 3 OctLFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1566
Vitesse
8th in Eerste Divisie · 17 pts from 12
- 28 OctWVVV Venlo Netherlands KNVB Beker1587
- 23 OctLEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1633
- 16 OctWFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1585
- 9 OctLFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1591
- 3 OctDNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1640
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 17 /12 | 46.4 | 0% | 1% | 15% | 14th |
| Vitesse | 17 /12 | 53.8 | <1% | 8% | 2% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
MVV: balanced profile (how Andries Jonker plays) · Vitesse: balanced profile (how Rüdiger Rehm plays)