Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 11
MVV 1–5 Heracles
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 14:45 UTC · De Geusselt, Maastricht
MVVTeam 1536HeraclesTeam 1670- Maurice Wrusch 41'
- Chafik Abbas 43'
- Manny Rodriguez Baldera 51'
- Jean-Paul N'djoli 62', 82'
We gave Heracles 40% to win: they did.
- Sil van der Wegen – assist Yael Liesdek33'MVV:Sil van der Wegen – assist Yael Liesdek
- 41'Maurice Wrusch –Heracles:Maurice Wrusch –
- 43'Chafik Abbas – assist Jean-Paul N'djoli –Heracles:Chafik Abbas – assist Jean-Paul N'djoli –
- 51'Manny Rodriguez Baldera – assist Chafik Abbas –Heracles:Manny Rodriguez Baldera – assist Chafik Abbas –
- 52'Max Hauswirth – for Thomas Bruns –Heracles:Max Hauswirth – for Thomas Bruns –
- 52'Tristan Van Gilst – for David Tomic –Heracles:Tristan Van Gilst – for David Tomic –
- 62'Jean-Paul N'djoli – assist Chafik Abbas –Heracles:Jean-Paul N'djoli – assist Chafik Abbas –
- Thijme Verheijen – for Robert Klaasen –69'MVV:Thijme Verheijen – for Robert Klaasen –
- 77'Mario Engels – for Manny Rodriguez Baldera –Heracles:Mario Engels – for Manny Rodriguez Baldera –
- 77'Mike te Wierik – for Mimeirhel Benita –Heracles:Mike te Wierik – for Mimeirhel Benita –
- Delano Asante – for Yael Liesdek77'MVV:Delano Asante – for Yael Liesdek
- Onesime Zimuangana – for Naim Matoug –77'MVV:Onesime Zimuangana – for Naim Matoug –
- 82'Jean-Paul N'djoli – assist Mario Engels –Heracles:Jean-Paul N'djoli – assist Mario Engels –
- 83'Daniel Van Kaam – for Djevencio van der Kust –Heracles:Daniel Van Kaam – for Djevencio van der Kust –
- Lennerd Daneels –89'MVV:Lennerd Daneels –
Before kick-off (provisional): 31% · 29% · 40%(MVV · draw · Heracles)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 1–5 had <1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: MVV €304K, Heracles €484K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Eerste Divisie matchday 11: 134 points.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
MVV
8th in Eerste Divisie · 16 pts from 10
- 9 OctLNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1557
- 3 OctLFC OSS Netherlands Eerste Divisie1565
- 26 SepWHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1537
- 18 SepLWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1570
- 11 SepLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1532
Heracles
1st in Eerste Divisie · 25 pts from 10
- 9 OctWWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1664
- 2 OctDHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1681
- 26 SepWVitesse Netherlands Eerste Divisie1650
- 18 SepLAlmere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie1654
- 11 SepWJong AZ Netherlands Eerste Divisie1614
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 16 /10 | 49.3 | <1% | 4% | 10% | 13th |
| Heracles | 25 /10 | 67.3 | 29% | 81% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
MVV · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1618
Heracles · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.6 (Elite) · Elo 1706
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
MVV: balanced profile (how Andries Jonker plays) · Heracles: direct (how Vincent Heilmann plays)