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Liga Pro · Relegation Group - 3

Mushuc Runa SC 1–1 Orense SC

Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Estadio del Mushuc Runa Sporting Club, Ambato

Mushuc Runa SC crestMushuc Runa SCTeam 1477
1–1
Full time
HT 1–1
Orense SC crestOrense SCTeam 1439

Match story

Mushuc Runa SC · draw · Orense SC

Before kick-off: 44% · 29% · 27%

Live chances: Mushuc Runa SC 3%, draw 95%, Orense SC 2% at 90+5'1' · 0–0 · Mushuc Runa SC 44%, draw 29%, Orense SC 27%2' · 0–0 · Mushuc Runa SC 44%, draw 29%, Orense SC 27%3' · 0–0 · Mushuc Runa SC 44%, draw 29%, Orense SC 27%4' · 0–0 · Mushuc Runa SC 44%, draw 29%, Orense SC 27%5' · 0–0 · Mushuc Runa SC 44%, draw 29%, Orense SC 27%6' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 27%, draw 27%, Orense SC 46%7' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 27%, draw 27%, Orense SC 46%8' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 26%, draw 27%, Orense SC 47%9' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 26%, draw 27%, Orense SC 47%10' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 26%, draw 27%, Orense SC 47%11' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 26%, draw 27%, Orense SC 47%12' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 26%, draw 27%, Orense SC 47%13' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 25%, draw 27%, Orense SC 47%14' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 25%, draw 27%, Orense SC 48%15' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 25%, draw 27%, Orense SC 48%16' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 25%, draw 27%, Orense SC 48%17' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 24%, draw 27%, Orense SC 48%18' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 24%, draw 27%, Orense SC 48%19' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 24%, draw 27%, Orense SC 49%20' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 24%, draw 27%, Orense SC 49%21' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 24%, draw 28%, Orense SC 49%22' · 0–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 23%, draw 28%, Orense SC 49%23' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 41%, draw 32%, Orense SC 27%24' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 41%, draw 32%, Orense SC 27%25' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 41%, draw 32%, Orense SC 27%26' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 41%, draw 32%, Orense SC 27%27' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 41%, draw 33%, Orense SC 27%28' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 40%, draw 33%, Orense SC 27%29' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 40%, draw 33%, Orense SC 27%30' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 40%, draw 33%, Orense SC 27%31' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 40%, draw 33%, Orense SC 27%32' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 40%, draw 34%, Orense SC 27%33' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 40%, draw 34%, Orense SC 27%34' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 39%, draw 34%, Orense SC 26%35' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 39%, draw 34%, Orense SC 26%36' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 39%, draw 35%, Orense SC 26%37' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 39%, draw 35%, Orense SC 26%38' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 39%, draw 35%, Orense SC 26%39' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 38%, draw 35%, Orense SC 26%40' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 38%, draw 36%, Orense SC 26%41' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 38%, draw 36%, Orense SC 26%42' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 38%, draw 36%, Orense SC 26%43' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 38%, draw 37%, Orense SC 26%44' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 37%, draw 37%, Orense SC 26%45' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 37%, draw 37%, Orense SC 26%45+1' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 37%, draw 38%, Orense SC 26%45+2' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 37%, draw 38%, Orense SC 25%45+3' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 36%, draw 38%, Orense SC 25%45+4' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 36%, draw 38%, Orense SC 25%HT · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 36%, draw 38%, Orense SC 25%47' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 36%, draw 39%, Orense SC 25%48' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 36%, draw 39%, Orense SC 25%49' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 35%, draw 40%, Orense SC 25%50' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 35%, draw 40%, Orense SC 25%52' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 34%, draw 41%, Orense SC 24%53' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 34%, draw 42%, Orense SC 24%54' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 34%, draw 42%, Orense SC 24%55' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 33%, draw 43%, Orense SC 24%56' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 33%, draw 43%, Orense SC 24%57' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 32%, draw 44%, Orense SC 23%58' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 32%, draw 45%, Orense SC 23%59' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 32%, draw 45%, Orense SC 23%60' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 31%, draw 46%, Orense SC 23%61' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 31%, draw 47%, Orense SC 23%62' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 30%, draw 47%, Orense SC 22%63' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 30%, draw 48%, Orense SC 22%64' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 29%, draw 49%, Orense SC 22%65' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 29%, draw 49%, Orense SC 22%66' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 29%, draw 50%, Orense SC 21%67' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 28%, draw 51%, Orense SC 21%68' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 28%, draw 52%, Orense SC 21%69' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 27%, draw 53%, Orense SC 20%70' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 26%, draw 54%, Orense SC 20%71' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 26%, draw 54%, Orense SC 20%72' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 25%, draw 55%, Orense SC 19%73' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 25%, draw 56%, Orense SC 19%74' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 24%, draw 57%, Orense SC 18%75' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 24%, draw 58%, Orense SC 18%76' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 23%, draw 60%, Orense SC 18%77' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 22%, draw 61%, Orense SC 17%79' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 21%, draw 63%, Orense SC 16%80' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 20%, draw 65%, Orense SC 15%81' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 19%, draw 66%, Orense SC 15%82' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 18%, draw 67%, Orense SC 14%83' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 17%, draw 69%, Orense SC 14%84' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 17%, draw 70%, Orense SC 13%85' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 16%, draw 72%, Orense SC 12%86' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 15%, draw 74%, Orense SC 12%87' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 14%, draw 76%, Orense SC 11%88' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 13%, draw 78%, Orense SC 10%89' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 11%, draw 80%, Orense SC 9%90' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 10%, draw 82%, Orense SC 8%90+1' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 9%, draw 84%, Orense SC 7%90+2' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 7%, draw 87%, Orense SC 6%90+3' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 6%, draw 89%, Orense SC 5%90+4' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 4%, draw 92%, Orense SC 3%90+5' · 1–1 · Mushuc Runa SC 3%, draw 95%, Orense SC 2%

Last reading, 90+5': 3% · 95% · 2%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Mushuc Runa SC 44% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 5'Orense SC:W. Herrera 1608 assist Beder Caicedo 1576
  2. 22'Mushuc Runa SC:Freddy Mina 1427 (pen.)
  3. 38'Orense SC:Juan Pablo Buch Pabón
  4. 42'Mushuc Runa SC:Jefferson Caicedo 1371 for Tomson Minda 1535
  5. 56'Orense SC:B. Quiñonez 1377 for Pedro Velasco 1561
  6. 58'Mushuc Runa SC:Bryan Corozo 1501 for Renso Tufino 1374
  7. 58'Mushuc Runa SC:Nazareno Bazán 1527 for Arnaldo Zambrano 1490
  8. 61'Mushuc Runa SC:Ronny Biojó 1601
  9. 61'Mushuc Runa SC:Rodrigo Formento 1645
  10. 69'Orense SC:Wilson Arturo Chuchuca Arreaga 1149 for Bryan Elián Viñán Rodríguez 1429
  11. 75'Mushuc Runa SC:Elian Caicedo 1495 for Freddy Mina 1427
  12. 76'Mushuc Runa SC:Kevin Peralta 1588 for Miguel Perea 1221
  13. 76'Orense SC:Luis Miguel Garcés Carrion 1310 for W. Herrera 1608
  14. 76'Orense SC:J. Valencia 1326 for Michael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes 1252
  15. 76'Orense SC:Christian Alejandro Ortíz Calle 1396 for Gonzalo Rostagno 1415

Line-ups

4-4-2Formations4-4-2
GR. Silva1595
DP. Velasco1561
DG. Achilier1273
DSixto Romario Mina Arroyo1406
DB. Caicedo1576
MG. Rostagno1415
MM. Quiñonez1653
MR. Jaramillo1620
MB. Viñán1429
FMichael Alessandro Bermúdez Reyes1252
FA. Herrera1608
CJ. Buch1535
Before kick-off: 44% · 29% · 27%(Mushuc Runa SC · draw · Orense SC)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Mushuc Runa SC €274K, Orense SC €256K.
  • Home advantage made Mushuc Runa SC the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
  • Style contrast in attacking (Liga Pro): Mushuc Runa SC ranked #3 of 16, Orense SC #14.
  • All 11 of Orense SC's expected starters were past their position's peak age.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Mushuc Runa SC

11th in Liga Pro · 38 pts from 30

  • 9 OctLDelfin SC 1523
  • 20 SepDDeportivo Cuenca 1520
  • 12 SepLGuayaquil City FC 1533
  • 8 SepDLeones del Norte 1551
  • 28 AugWDelfin SC 1542

Orense SC

13th in Liga Pro · 33 pts from 30

  • 11 OctDDeportivo Cuenca 1530
  • 21 SepLManta FC 1531
  • 15 SepLUniversidad Catolica 1516
  • 8 SepWGuayaquil City FC 1520
  • 3 SepLLeones del Norte 1598

Season outlook

From the Liga Pro simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Mushuc Runa SC39 /3250.90%<1%2%8th
Orense SC34 /3245.60%0%29%12th
Mushuc Runa SC
Orense SC

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Liga Pro

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

M. Perea
M. Perea

Mushuc Runa SC · +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1221

M. Quiñonez
M. Quiñonez

Orense SC · +0.5 (Average) · Elo 1653

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Angeles Paúl Vélez Ordoñez

Coach DNA: direct

Juan Pablo Buch Pabón

Coach DNA: direct

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Mushuc Runa SC: direct (how Angeles Paúl Vélez Ordoñez plays) · Orense SC: balanced profile (how Juan Pablo Buch Pabón plays)