1. Lig · Regular Season - 14
Muğlaspor vs Esenler Erokspor
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 13:00 UTC
Muğlaspor host Esenler Erokspor on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (1. Lig); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Muğlaspor 30%, draw 29%, Esenler Erokspor 42%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Muğlaspor €322K, Esenler Erokspor €489K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of 1. Lig matchday 14: 180 points.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Muğlaspor goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Muğlaspor 1574 · Esenler Erokspor 1754
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Muğlaspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1551
Esenler Erokspor · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1712
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Muğlaspor
9th in 1. Lig · 15 pts from 11
- 19 OctWManisa F.K. Turkey 1 Lig1547
- 15 OctLBursaspor Turkey 1 Lig1557
- 11 OctDFatih Karagümrük Turkey 1 Lig1579
- 18 SepDIğdır FK Turkey 1 Lig1589
- 13 SepDSivasspor Turkey 1 Lig1553
Esenler Erokspor
14th in 1. Lig · 12 pts from 11
- 19 OctWMardin 1969 Turkey 1 Lig1707
- 15 OctDManisa F.K. Turkey 1 Lig1722
- 10 OctWİstanbulspor Turkey 1 Lig1711
- 19 SepLFatih Karagümrük Turkey 1 Lig1756
- 13 SepDBursaspor Turkey 1 Lig1718
Season outlook
From the 1. Lig simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muğlaspor | 15 /11 | 47.5 | 0% | 1% | 7% | 14th |
| Esenler Erokspor | 12 /11 | 56.9 | <1% | 20% | <1% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile