Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 12
Motor Lublin vs Zaglebie Lubin
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Motor Lublin Arena, Lublin
Motor Lublin host Zaglebie Lubin on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Ekstraklasa); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Motor Lublin 45%, draw 28%, Zaglebie Lubin 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Motor Lublin €563K, Zaglebie Lubin €654K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Motor Lublin goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 1–27%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Motor Lublin 1699 · Zaglebie Lubin 1675
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Motor Lublin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1663
Zaglebie Lubin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1710
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Motor Lublin
11th in Ekstraklasa · 12 pts from 11
- 17 OctWSlask Wroclaw Ekstraklasa1677
- 12 OctWRadomiak Radom Ekstraklasa1646
- 19 SepDGornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa1630
- 11 SepLRaków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa1676
- 5 SepLLegia Warszawa Ekstraklasa1688
Zaglebie Lubin
7th in Ekstraklasa · 18 pts from 11
- 18 OctWJagiellonia Ekstraklasa1682
- 10 OctLCracovia Krakow Ekstraklasa1698
- 20 SepLWisla Plock Ekstraklasa1683
- 15 SepWRaków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa1660
- 12 SepWGKS Katowice Ekstraklasa1634
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin | 12 /11 | 41.1 | 0% | 1% | 17% | 13th |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 18 /11 | 45.3 | 0% | 5% | 5% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Motor Lublin: balanced profile (how Mariusz Misiura plays) · Zaglebie Lubin: direct (how Leszek Ojrzynski plays)