Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 8
Moreirense 0–1 GIL Vicente
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas, Guimarães
MoreirenseTeam 1647GIL VicenteTeam 1705We gave Moreirense 37% to win: GIL Vicente won.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 37% · 30% · 34%(Moreirense · draw · GIL Vicente)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 0–1 had 9%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Moreirense €1.0M, GIL Vicente €1.3M.
- Home advantage made Moreirense the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.
- Moreirense's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.7 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Moreirense
12th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 7
- 20 SepDVitória SC Primeira Liga1719
- 14 SepWMaritimo Primeira Liga1700
- 9 SepLBenfica Primeira Liga1653
- 4 SepLFC Porto Primeira Liga1646
- 30 AugWCasa Pia Primeira Liga1611
GIL Vicente
9th in Primeira Liga · 8 pts from 6
- 19 SepDMaritimo Primeira Liga1755
- 13 SepLBenfica Primeira Liga1723
- 6 SepLAcademico Viseu Primeira Liga1807
- 30 AugDFamalicao Primeira Liga1779
- 24 AugWCasa Pia Primeira Liga1779
Season outlook
From the Primeira Liga simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 8 /7 | 38.6 | 0% | 1% | 18% | 13th |
| GIL Vicente | 8 /6 | 41.8 | 0% | 1% | 8% | 6th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Moreirense · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.6 (Elite) · Elo 1666
GIL Vicente · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1736
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Moreirense: balanced profile (how Vasco Maria de Albuquerque Botelho da Costa plays) · GIL Vicente: balanced profile (how Luís Miguel Correia Pinto plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.